An “unprecedented” outbreak of emergency-level bush fires has scorched a vast area of Australia’s southeastern state of New South Wales during the past few days, with fire weather only beginning to improve on Friday, according to the New South Wales Rural Fire Service (RFS) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
However, the full property, human, and animal toll of the fires could be far higher, since fire crews are still actively battling dozens of blazes.
At this stage, it appears at least 100 homes have been destroyed in yesterday's bush fires. Three people are unaccounted for. More than 30 people have been injured. At 6:30am there are 77 bush or grass fires with 42 uncontained. #nswrfs #nswfires pic.twitter.com/WtB9O671bU— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) November 8, 2019
On Friday night, the fire agency tweeted ominously: “Discuss your bush fire survival plan tonight and stay updated on conditions via the NSW RFS website."
The fires, which have injured 30 and threatened large communities such as Port Macquarie, a city of 46,000, represent the latest outbreak in what is already an unusually active and early bush fire season.
More dangerous fire weather is anticipated next week, and the early-season blazes do not bode well for the summer, when large parts of Australia tend to experience their peak fire risk.
Following some of the driest first eight months of the year in southern and eastern Australia, the Forest Fire Danger Index has hovered at unusually high levels for this time of year, particularly for coastal areas of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, where the fires flared up again this week.
Satellite images showed an explosion of fire activity on Friday, with smoke plumes extending hundreds of miles downwind, over the Pacific Ocean. According to NASA, adding up the area burned by just the out-of-control fires as of Nov. 8 eastern time yielded more than 900,000 acres burned so far, which is larger than the state of Rhode Island.
#Smoke has increased in NE NSW this afternoon as winds have strengthened over the #fire grounds ahead of a #coolchange tonight. Latest #bushfire warnings from the #RFS: https://t.co/9H7Je3rqBQ Latest weather warnings: https://t.co/HR2uRkWb1A pic.twitter.com/cmoIozkTMA— Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) November 8, 2019
Nearly 900 firefighters and about 70 aircraft battled blazes amid hot, dry, and windy weather on Thursday and Friday in New South Wales. A startling image taken by Japan’s Himawari satellite on Thursday showed several fires burning along the coast in New South Wales, with smoke and dust blowing out to sea, where it was ingested into a cyclone and transported south toward the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
“We are in uncharted territory,” said Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons, according to the BBC. “We have never seen this many fires concurrently at emergency warning level.”
At the peak of the fire outbreak Thursday and Friday, 17 emergency-level fires were burning simultaneously across New South Wales.
On Thursday, Greg Allan, a spokesman for the New South Wales Rural Fire Service, emphasized the early date of these fires, given that the Australian summer has not yet set in. “We’re only in October — we’ve still got to get through summer. There’s a potentially long road for the fire season ahead,” Allan said, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.
Climate change and the Indian Ocean Dipole are ramping up the fire danger
The bush fires this week are taking place in areas of Australia that are projected to see increases in the average forest fire danger index and the number of days with severe fire danger due to human-caused global warming, according to a 2015 federal climate report. Studies published since have also warned that one of the most robust findings of climate research is that the fire season will lengthen in large parts of Australia, and that conditions will become more conducive to severe fires as the climate warms and vegetation dries out faster and more extensively.
Australia’s fire danger has increased since 1950 across most of the eastern part of the country, the Bureau of Meteorology has found. These trends include areas of southeastern Queensland and parts of northeastern New South Wales, and capture an increase in the frequency and severity of dangerous fire weather.
The United States is also grappling with the ramifications of climate change when it comes to wildfires, particularly in the West.
You’re likely to hear more about Australian bush fires in coming weeks, since winter and spring rainfall was significantly curtailed across portions of the country. This is a trend that is related to a predominantly natural climate cycle known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which involves a pattern of air circulation across the Indian Ocean.
Many locations in coastal New South Wales, for example, saw January to August rainfall totals that were 50 percent below average, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
In some places, dry-weather trends date back to 2017. “Trends towards a lengthened fire season have already been discerned in some areas of the country, with the fire season typically starting earlier in the year in southern Queensland, inland and southern New South Wales, and Victoria,” the bureau found.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole the past two years has meant drier-than-average conditions in much of Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology found that it’s unusual to have back-to-back years with a positive dipole pattern, which helps influence precipitation patterns across South Asia and Oceania.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurs when the water is cooler than average off the coast of Sumatra, leading to reduced atmospheric lift there and reduced rainfall over Australia, and there are warmer-than-average waters off the coast of Africa. This climate cycle is changing over time as ocean and air temperatures increase in response to growing amounts of greenhouse gases in the air due to human activities, namely the burning of fossil fuels for energy.
“While the IOD is a natural mode of variability, its behavior is changing in response to climate change. Research suggests that the frequency of positive IOD events, and particularly the occurrence of consecutive events will increase as global temperatures rise,” the bureau stated.
Climate trends in Australia show sharp warming and an increase in extreme events. Last summer, for example, was the country’s hottest on record, and the meteorology bureau found that climate change exacerbated extreme heat events as well as droughts during the year.