Autumn at the National Arboretum on Nov. 11. (Gary House/Flickr)

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: Some may get a thrill from the chill, but most of us have had our fill.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, light breeze. Highs: 44-49

Tonight: Increasing clouds, possible sprinkle late. Lows: 30-36

Tomorrow: Gradual clearing, nearly calm. Highs: 50-55.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

While temperatures are on the uptick the next two days, it is still unseasonably cool. Showers come close tonight and early tomorrow, but only the beaches see anything meaningful or measurable. Another surge of blustery cold this weekend makes outdoor activities a bit bracing.

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Today (Thursday): Clouds scatter across the area but pose no risk of showers as dry air remains in place. Light south winds signal a welcome moderation in temperatures. Even so, readings are about 10 degrees below normal with highs in the mid- to upper 40s. Confidence: High

Tonight: Moisture surging up the coast leads to increasing clouds and, while steadier showers are mainly well to the east, a stray sprinkle or two can’t be ruled out. Winds are mainly calm and lows settle in the low 30s in our colder areas and mid- to upper 30s elsewhere. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Friday): Clouds should gradually diminish during the morning as showers continue to focus off the Atlantic Coast. Only a very light northwest wind makes highs in the low to mid-50s feel fine after our recent cold. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: The evening should be mainly clear and calm, but a surge of cold air is likely to come barreling down from New England late tonight leading to an increase in clouds and strengthening northwest winds. Lows slip to the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday is blustery and cold as temperatures struggle to climb. Most highs top out in the low 40s, despite clearing skies. Overnight lows range through the 20s, and the gusty winds make it feel like teens. Confidence: Medium

Winds could still be brisk much of Sunday as another storm off the coast may gear up. Our skies should still be partly sunny, but don’t look for much warming. Highs reach only the low to mid-40s in most of the area. Overnight skies should still be open enough to allow a look for the Leonid meteor shower, but dress warmly as lows are in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

Monday is likely to be partly cloudy and only slightly warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 40s. Confidence: Medium

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

1/10 (): Most of the storm activity is out over the Atlantic, keeping snow risks low despite the cold.