A Thanksgiving sunrise. (Kevin Wolf/Flickr)

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

8/10: Holiday grade inflation, 40s and breezy conditions are a slight improvement over Thanksgiving. A bit more sun and less gustiness. Nothing disruptive.

Express forecast

  • Today: Occasional clouds. Highs: Mid- to upper 40s.
  • Tonight: Mostly clear. Dying wind. Lows: Mid-20s to low 30s.
  • Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Late-day shower? Highs: Low to mid-40s.
  • Sunday: Rather rainy. Rainy. Highs: 40s.

Forecast in detail

Plan on decent shopping weather today, although it is a bit chilly for this time of year. Weekend precipitation looks largely to be rain — and we could use another dose — but we can’t totally rule out a few sleet pellets or snowflakes mixing in tomorrow night. Accumulation remains a long shot, though. Full details below.

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Today (Friday): A bit more sun than we saw on Thanksgiving should accompany any Black Friday shopping. Along with some cloud development at times, a quick sprinkle can’t be completely ruled out during the morning into midday hours. Windiness slowly lowers, but still a few gusts near 20 mph are possible in the morning hours. Northwesterly winds are our cold winds, and they do hold high temperatures back, several degrees below average, in the mid- and upper 40s most spots. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies trend clearer and northerly breezes continue their downtrend, perhaps calming nearer dawn. Low temperatures range from mid-20s outside the Beltway, to low 30s downtown. Confidence: High

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Tomorrow (Saturday): Morning sun is increasingly replaced by afternoon clouds. A sprinkle or rain shower is possible near sunset. With breezes from varying directions not blowing too strongly, our bodies may only feel a couple degrees cooler than the thermometer. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the low to mid-40s. We’ll keep an eye on when clouds or showers arrive, as we get closer. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Showers increase in coverage and intensity. Non-accumulating sleet and snow could mix in locally as well, and spots north could get a dusting. Steadier, moderate rain is possible during the early morning hours before dawn. Grab the umbrella if staying out awhile. Temperatures hover in fairly steady fashion around the mid-30s, with southeasterly breezes assisting in keeping us above freezing (32 degrees). Wind chills may dip into the low 30s before dawn, so bundle up as well. Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

Sunday: It’s looking wet for most of the day. Though you may want to sleep in, if you need to head out, as showers and rain are steadiest, heaviest and most widespread during the morning hours. Thanks to steady southeasterly breezes off the warmer bay and Atlantic, we should muster milder high temperatures. Mid- to upper 40s looks possible at this time, but subject to tweaking up or down. Stay tuned. Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday night: Showers may stick around, but they become lighter and fewer. Steady breezes shift to blow from a colder northwesterly direction, ushering in an air mass that may assist in mixing snowflakes with our rain showers. Accumulation remains very unlikely, but we will watch it. Low temperatures by just before dawn may dip into the mid-30s to about 40 degrees inside the Beltway. Confidence: Low-Medium

Clouds and showers are possible Monday. Accompanying chilliness isn’t an ideal start to the workweek, either. With northwesterly breezes, wind chills in the 30s are possible, though the thermometer may hit high temperatures around 40 to mid-40s. Some snow could mix in with this rain, but accumulation chances are very low given temperatures. Check back again as we get closer, because it isn’t even a sure bet we see precipitation. Confidence: Low-Medium

Clearing is likely Tuesday, assuming any Monday and Monday night precipitation timing remains on schedule to arrive and then depart. Which isn’t a guarantee this far out. As it stands now, we should see partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 40s. Our below-average temperature trend may continue! Confidence: Low-Medium

Snow potential index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least an inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-to-10 scale.

1/10 (→): A stretch, but a few wet flakes (and sleet) possible Saturday night. Early Monday also features a slight chance for flakes mixing with rain, and perhaps even briefly changing to snow showers.

Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.