Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: Sunny but very breezy, especially in the morning. Feels like the 20s! Would grade higher if we weren’t “unacclimated,” and still used to real January feels.

Express forecast

  • Today: Sunny. Very breezy. Highs: Upper 30s to low 40s.
  • Tonight: Cloudier. Snowflakes near dawn? Lows: Upper teens to mid-20s.
  • Tomorrow: Wintry mix. Turning windy. Highs: 30s to near 40.
  • Sunday: Sunnier, windy. Highs: Falling through the 30s.

Forecast in detail

It’s sunny but chilly today before a wintry mix pesters us tomorrow. More freezing rain, sleet and plain ol’ rain than snow — unless you’re well northwest of the immediate area. Nonetheless, some slick travel can be expected nearby! It’s also windy, more often than not, through the long weekend. We’ll slowly acclimate to winter again — just give your body a few days.

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Today (Friday): Sunshine helps reduce the return of a wintry sting, thanks in part to northerly winds gusting near 25 mph, especially in the morning. We feel like the 20s most of the day, but the thermometer should hit the upper 30s to low 40s. That’s a few degrees below our typical high temperatures, for a change. Dry air moves in with a vengeance, indicated by dew points perhaps in the single digits, just above zero. That’s dry even in a desert! Grab the lotion, balm and humidifier perhaps. Confidence: High

Tonight: We turn cloudier, and after 4 a.m., especially west of town, some light snowflakes are possible. A light dusting well west of town is possible by sunrise. Most of us have to wait until dawn or shortly thereafter to see light snow develop. Winds calm as the night wears on. Low temperatures should manage to get into the 20s for the entire region. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Saturday): Some slick travel conditions are likely, especially west of Interstate 95, with a wintry mix falling for most of the day. Early morning light snow may turn to a lull by late morning, as sleet and freezing rain begin mixing in and then fully taking over during the afternoon. Even with a heavy coating (under one inch) of snow in much of the region, sleet and freezing rain could keep us slick into sunset.

We’ll watch for above-freezing (32-degree) temperatures each hour to see if roads can improve. Downtown and points south and east could perhaps see a change most quickly to plain rain before sunset. As one gets northwest of the city, a glaze of ice is possible. Gusty southeast winds build midday and into the afternoon. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Spotty freezing rain should end as a cold rain in most spots. Precipitation intensity should decrease through the evening, but sprinkles through the early morning hour can’t be completely ruled out. Temperatures may rise into the low to mid-40s but drop a bit before dawn. Southerly breezes could gust above 25 mph. Some slick spots remain, but seemingly not widespread. Confidence: Low-Medium

A look ahead

Sunday: Sunnier skies prevail. It feels like the 20s again, thanks to northwesterly winds still gusting above 25 mph. Our temperatures slowly fall through the 30s during the day. Our high temperature above 40 degrees will likely be set well before the sun rises. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Winds slowly wane, but it’s unlikely that conditions turn fully calm. It still feels like the teens for wind chills. Temperatures get nice and cold, into the 20s, throughout the region. Confidence: Medium

Mostly sunny with 30s for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Tuesday, which feels about typical this time of year, although it remains below-average for January. Note it’s worth keeping a heavy coat and perhaps a scarf with gloves handy. Wind chills likely stay in the 20s both days. Even though winds may calm a bit, with temperatures in the 30s it won’t take much wind to chill us. Stay tuned for small forecast tweaks as we get closer. Confidence: Medium

Snow potential index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

4/10 (→): Saturday’s still up in the air with a wintry mix around our region, but main snows should stay west of Interstate 81 and in northern Maryland. Fewest slick spots south and east of town.

Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.