10:30 a.m. — A cooler and wetter outlook for today

Stubborn cold air trapped near the ground may prove difficult to dislodge today. In addition, rain may last longer than we were earlier anticipating. Right now, it looks like showers may not taper off until between 1 and 3 p.m. in the immediate area, and until sunset or so in Southern Maryland.

We’re bumping forecast high temperatures down 10 degrees, with predicted highs closer to the low 50s than low 60s.

Original forecast from 5 a.m.

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

7/10: Showers and winds mar the mild day; cold enough tomorrow to take your breath away.

Express forecast

  • Today: Morning showers taper off in early afternoon, breezy. Highs: 60-64
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy, breezy. Lows: 28-34
  • Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, gusty winds. Highs: 36-40

Forecast in detail

Today, like so many others this winter, is warm and wet. Cold, dry air blasts into town tonight and holds firm to start the holiday weekend. The weather Friday and Saturday is the coldest in over three weeks. Then, true to form this season, the chill is short-lived, and both milder and damp weather return early next week.

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Today (Thursday): Showers are likely to be fairly frequent but mainly light through midday, and then they taper off during the afternoon. Moderate southwest breezes make umbrellas a challenge. Highs are mainly in the low 60s, which should be enjoyable once we dry out. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Brisk northwest winds drop temperatures at a good pace overnight. Lows should fall to the upper 20s to low 30s in most areas under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Friday): This is no Valentine’s Day gift as temperatures barely rise despite mostly sunny skies. Highs are stuck in the upper 30s, and brisk northwest winds make it feel more like upper 20s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow night: Winds calm but that just allows the temperatures to drop faster. Bundle up as lows fall to the mid- to upper teens in the suburbs and low 20s downtown. Confidence: High

Mist and drizzle in the District's Woodley Park on Tuesday. (Jeanne McVey/Flickr)

A look ahead

Saturday starts off sunny, but clouds are expected to build in as the afternoon progresses. Highs are mainly in the upper 30s but could reach the low 40s if clouds hold off long enough. Mainly cloudy skies overnight hold lows in the mid- to upper 20s (near 30 downtown). Confidence: Medium-High

Skies should be partly sunny Sunday, with highs warming back up to the more tolerable upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds increase overnight, and a sprinkle can’t be ruled out. Lows range through the 30s. Confidence: Medium

Presidents’ Day (Monday) has partly cloudy skies holding back much of a warm-up, but highs still come in on the plus side of normal, mainly in the low 50s. Showers approach from the west but should not arrive until overnight. Confidence: Low-Medium

Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.