11:00 p.m. - Storms advancing into Beltway towards D.C., bringing gusty winds, heavy rain, occasional lightning and possible small hail.

The main squall line has merged with the storms out ahead of it, and this larger area of heavy rain with gusty — but not damaging — winds is moving across the western and northern portions of the Beltway and into D.C. now. It’s possible but not likely that one or two of these storms could prompt the Weather Service to issue another severe thunderstorm warning, but it is not expected at this time.

After the heaviest rain moves through, the passage of the cold front itself could set off wind gusts up to 40 mph, bring a second burst of winds to the area.

**Barring significant developments, this will be the last update of this event.**

10:20 p.m. - Storms moving into DC Metro with Severe thunderstorm warning issued for S. Fauquier, W. Stafford & SW Prince William County until 11 p.m.

Downpours, small hail, and gusty winds above 50 mph are possible as storms move closer to the District. Heavy rain is already moving into Manassas, Leesburg, Reston and Germantown, and will arrive along western portions of the Beltway in the next hour.

9:40 p.m. - Showers and storms are getting better organized

The main squall line and the areas of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it continue to get better organized, posing a threat of isolated damaging winds and small hail. The most intense storms are located southwest of D.C., with a severe thunderstorm warning issued northeast of Charlottsville.

The National Weather Service forecast office in Baltimore-Washington issued this forecast discussion a few minutes ago, noting the potential for storms to continue to intensify a bit. “Squall line continues to gell[sic.] as the surface boundary plows eastward from West Virginia. Forcing aloft continues to increase, so expect [the] line to continue to strengthen through midnight...”

8:41 p.m. - Showers and storms moving into western parts of metro area.

Showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed ahead of the main line of storms this evening, and are moving into western Fauquier County and will soon push into Loudon County. These showers are moving to the northeast, and will contain the threat of gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.

The main line of showers, with a few lightning strikes showing up from time to time, is located further northwest, and won’t move into the metro area until after 9:30 p.m. This line of storms, also has the potential to contain isolated damaging wind gusts, with more widespread downpours and gusty winds of up to 40 mph.

P.M. Update:

The “wedge” won the day. That is, the wedge of cooler air banked up against the mountains locals know and love so well. High temperatures have been near 50, but we need to watch for a small surge of warmth into the evening as low-pressure winds up to our west and sends gusty showers and storms our way. Once the rain ends, the gusts are set to persist.

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Through tonight: Odds of showers increase into and through the evening. Anything early is quick and minor. The main line moves by after dark, probably in the 8 p.m.-to-midnight range, west to east, give or take. These showers and perhaps storms could pack a locally hefty punch. Isolated wind damage or a weak tornado are the main risks outside the briefly heavy rain. Rain moves east and winds are down near and after midnight. Winds kick up behind the front and are gusty out of the northwest into sunrise. Lows settle to the mid- to upper 30s.

View the current weather at The Washington Post.


The wind gust forecast for Thursday afternoon from the NAM model.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Sunshine is back. But so is winter — or at least our version of winter this year. Highs reach the mid-40s to perhaps as warm as 50 under partly to mostly sunny skies. The wind is not ideal, though. With sustained winds as high as 25 mph, gusts could approach 40 mph. That’ll help keep it feeling colder than it is, mainly in the 20s to near freezing.

See Dan Stillman’s forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter and Instagram. For related traffic news, check out Gridlock.

Pollen update: The most recent pollen count was washed out.

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