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* Flash flood watch until 6 p.m. *

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: At least it’s cooler? But mugginess is certainly back, along with periodic rain and storm chances. Patchy flooding and a couple of severe storms are also possible.

Express forecast

  • Today: Periodic rain and storms. Highs: Upper 70s to mid-80s.
  • Tonight: Mostly cloudy with rain chances. Lows: Upper 60s to mid-70s.
  • Tomorrow: Rain chances, especially P.M. Highs: Mid- to upper 80s.
  • Sunday: Breezy. Shower/storm chances. Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s.

Forecast in detail

It’s an atmospheric pattern change! Cooler and wetter times are here, more or less, with a somewhat stationary front draped across the region, along with an upper-level low pressure system trying to hang out to our west for a spell. Rounds of rain for our region are expected in the days ahead. That’s even before Isaias perhaps nears us early next week.

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Today (Friday): With increased rain chances comes increased mugginess. That humid, thick-air feeling is courtesy of dew points at or above the 70-degree mark. Even between batches of periodic rain and storms, we may stay mostly cloudy. We will monitor for severe storms producing heavy downpours anywhere in the region, especially south of a line drawn roughly along I-66.

Exact timing and location of rain depends on just how a quasi-stationary front drapes itself through the region. Rain amounts will be at least a half-inch if you see a thunderstorm, but a rapid (flooding) inch or more of rain can’t be ruled out, especially near and south of the front tomorrow. Light northeasterly breezes near 10 mph may blow by late day. High temperatures top out in the upper 70s to mid-80s (if we stay sunnier than currently expected). Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies are a good bet, with a continued chance of showers and storms — but rain amounts and regional coverage should wane a bit. Upper 60s to mid-70s are about as cool as we can get in this muggy air mass. Light east winds slowly calm, and rain amounts should stay under a quarter-inch. Confidence: Medium

Follow us on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for the latest updates. Keep reading for the forecast into next week …

Tomorrow (Saturday): It’s a bit less cloudy with the brightest hours likely being in the morning. Showers and storms have the highest chance of forming in the mid- to late afternoon hours and should be a bit less heavy and widespread. South of town may have a slightly higher rain chance, too. Muggy mid- to upper 80s for high temperatures. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Showers and thundershowers may slowly wane, but it stays cloudy and muggy. Low temperatures likely bottom out around 70 degrees to perhaps mid-70s downtown. If you see any cracks in the clouds, look for the moon, Saturn and Jupiter forming a trio in the southeast during the evening. Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

Sunday: Yep, you guessed it, still a decent chance of showers and storms. Hotter temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s may accompany our renewed mugginess of recent days. Noticeable southwesterly breezes may be blowing, too. Confidence: Medium

Sunday night: Skies are mostly cloudy overnight, with a few showers and storms possible. Muggy predawn low temperatures are merely bottoming out in the low to mid-70s. Confidence: Medium

If Isaias approaches our area from the south, the likely time-frame would be Monday and Tuesday. Even without a tropical system nearby, rain chances remain fairly high as a cold front approaches. This is a complex atmospheric setup, so please check back a couple times with us this weekend for updates. Outside of showers and storms it looks like more clouds than sun, with continued steamy high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s. Confidence: Low-Medium