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Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: Not scorching. That’s the main positive of the day.

Express forecast

  • Today: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs: Low-to-mid 80s.
  • Tonight: Evening storm? Rain possible into the night. Lows: 72-77.
  • Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Shower or storm late? Highs: Low-to-mid 90s.

Forecast in detail

Mostly cloudy skies help keep us below 90 for a second straight day. That’s big news after the historically hot July we just went through. A strong to severe thunderstorm storm threat may develop later today, but the big forecast question marks tend to come as Hurricane Isaias enters the picture early next week.

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Today (Saturday): Clouds rule though we could see occasional periods of sun. Showers become increasingly likely in the afternoon, and possibly a thunderstorm or two as well. Any shower/storm activity before 5 p.m. or so should be rather isolated. After that, we may have a window for some stronger or even severe storms. Odds of that are better to the south and/or west of the immediate area, near a frontal boundary. An isolated severe storm could produce large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado. Highs make the low to mid-80s as humidity remains high. Winds are out of the south around 5 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: The risk of strong to severe storms, especially south of Washington, may continue into the late evening before waning. Rain odds may end up being the best from evening into the overnight as storms to the south run this way and weaken in the process. Lows range from about 72 to 77. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Sunday): Plan on more sunshine than today, and more heat. This is thanks to the frontal boundary in the region lifting back to the north. I think most spots stay dry, but showers and storms could trickle in from the west late, especially in western parts of the region. Before that, highs make the low to mid-90s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Skies are partly cloudy, although clouds may increase late. There’s a small chance of a few showers toward morning. Lows range from near 70 to the mid-70s. Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

Things turn trickier by Monday and Tuesday. The front is still hung up in the region. Add in an upper-level low pressure to the west and a tropical system offshore, and it mean all sorts of potential weirdness in the forecast. For now, it seems like the best shot of interacting with the storm itself would be Tuesday, although it could certainly stay far enough east to miss us for the most part. However, periodic heavy rain could set up as soon as Monday, depending on where the storm and front mingle. Both days seem likely to get stuck in the low-and-mid 80s, thanks to plentiful clouds. Stay tuned. Confidence: Low