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* Tropical storm warning for Calvert and St. Mary’s counties | Tropical storm watch (south and east of Montgomery County) | Flash flood watch tonight through Tuesday evening | Coastal flood watch *

8:30 a.m. update — Dry weather into this afternoon, outside risk of severe storms this evening

The forecast for today has been modified to allow for more dry hours into the afternoon as showers and storms developing ahead of Isaias may hold off until later in the day or, more likely, the evening. However, some of the showers and storms that develop late this afternoon and evening could be intense, with heavy downpours and localized pockets of damaging winds.

We’re likely to see showers and storms first develop in our southern and western areas as the afternoon wears on before becoming more numerous in the immediate area by evening.

Original forecast (updated at 8:30 a.m.)

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: While humid, morning isn’t terrible. But showers increase in the afternoon.

Express forecast

  • Today: Partly sunny, widely scattered late day showers and storms. Highs: 84 to 88.
  • Tonight: Periodic downpours, increasing overnight. Lows: 70 to 75.
  • Tomorrow: Very heavy rain. Strong winds in eastern areas. Highs: 75 to 80.

Forecast in detail

Isaias is poised to deliver extremely heavy rainfall over the region, with a few showers associated with the storm’s moisture beginning as soon as later this afternoon. Downpours will increase in coverage and intensity tonight before widespread heavy rainfall on Tuesday. In addition, areas east of Interstate 95, especially close to the bay, could see tropical-storm-force wind gusts, topping 40 mph. The storm will pass Tuesday night with typical warm, humid August weather in its wake.

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Today (Monday): Most of us see a dry morning and some partial sunshine, and this could extend into the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may start to flare up as the afternoon wears on, especially in our southern and western areas. Storms are likely to contain heavy downpours and may contain isolated damaging wind gusts. It’s humid with highs in the mid- to upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Periodic showers and storms are likely with heavy downpours. Storms during the evening could also contain some localized pockets of damaging winds. The coverage and intensity of rain increase during the predawn hours. A half-inch to an inch of rain could fall, with locally higher amounts. Lows range from 70 to 75. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Tuesday): Repeated waves of heavy rain are likely, and some thunder is possible. Rain may be particularly intense in the afternoon, especially along and east of Interstate 95. During this time, winds may also become gusty, reaching 20 to 35 mph along the Interstate 95 corridor and perhaps 35 to 55 mph for our counties adjacent to the bay, where downed trees and power outages could occur. Several inches of rain could fall across the region as highs struggle to reach 80. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Rain is likely to taper off quickly from southwest to northeast during the evening as the storm speeds off. Skies are mostly cloudy overnight, with lows near 70 Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

We settle into a seasonable early August weather pattern Wednesday through Sunday. Each day should have partly sunny skies and moderately humid conditions, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s, a slight reprieve from our near constant 90s in July. Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible each day with the highest odds on Friday (60 percent) and the best chance of staying dry on Wednesday. Overnight lows are generally between the mid-60s and low 70s. Confidence: Medium