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Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: Arguably our first truly chilly, damp, breezy autumnal day. It may require some adjustment after two “10” digits in a row. ’Tis part of the season, and not uncommon!

Express forecast

  • Today: Wet, breezy. Fewest showers late in the day. Highs: Falling through the 50s.
  • Tonight: Showers slowly wane. Lows: 30s to around 40.
  • Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, less breezy. Highs: Near 60 to low 60s.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny. Some breeze. Highs: Low to mid-60s.

Forecast in detail

It’s a damp autumn day today and our bodies really aren’t used to 50s without sunshine — you might notice a slight wind chill. Things are getting real, with even some very-high-elevation snowflakes possible this weekend during the cold snap! Acclimation to later-autumn conditions aside, we do have sunshine returning this weekend, so it should be decent for outdoor plans once we get past today!

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Today (Friday): Cloudy skies are the rule, with occasional showers and even a few periods of steady rain, especially during the morning. Temperatures may start in the mid- to upper 50s around early morning and then slowly fall throughout the afternoon. Rain intensity and frequency should slowly wane by late afternoon, with temperatures bottoming out in the low 50s.

A quarter-inch of rain is possible around town, perhaps double that southeast of town. Little to none well northwest. North winds blow near 15 mph, but a couple of gusts near 25 mph are possible. The wind chill may be a few degrees below what the thermometer says. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: A small umbrella may be useful, with a few showers potentially around until the later evening hours. Nothing too long-lasting, but a quick shower is possible. Shower chances should decrease with time as the evening progresses. Low temperatures really fall with northwesterly breezes gusting near 20 mph. Perhaps 40 degrees downtown? 30s outside of the Beltway and away from large bodies of water. Patchy frost seems likely west and north of town, although winds may not die off fully. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Saturday): Sunshine and less in the way of wind. High temperatures are near 60 to mid-60s, and lighter northwesterly breezes generally gust under 15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Frost is again possible west and north of town, with much of the region dipping into the 30s again, but low 40s seem possible in the warmer urban centers and lower elevations near water. Have those sweaters out yet? Skies should be mostly clear, and light southerly breezes, if any, stay nearly calm at times. Confidence: Medium-High

A look ahead

Sunday: It’s about a half-notch warmer but still sunny, with only a slight increase in clouds as the afternoon wears on. High temperatures mainly hit the low to mid-60s, but let’s call the probable temperature range 62 to 68 degrees. Southerly breezes could gust a couple of times above 15 mph, but it’s probably not going to detract too much. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday night: Skies are partly cloudy. Thanks to very light southerly breezes, warmer air and somewhat increased moisture is heading into the region. Low temperatures don’t dip far, but the upper 40s to low 50s aren’t unseasonable. We could see some patchy fog or mist near dawn. Confidence: Medium

Clouds may create partly sunny conditions Monday and Tuesday. So far, rain chances remain fairly low. Stay tuned as we get closer, in case we have some forecast tweaks as more-focused data comes in this weekend. High temperatures should get near 70 to mid-70s. If shower chances rise, the temperature forecast could fall a bit. Confidence: Low-Medium