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D.C.-area forecast: Showers today, with soaking rain tonight

Some minor flooding is possible in a few spots tonight. Snowflakes on Monday?

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Radar courtesy MyRadar | © OpenStreetMap contributors

9:55 a.m. — Showers have arrived on early side today but rain may end early Saturday. Monday snow chance?

Radar shows showers have arrived on the early side of expectations, streaking through our western and northern suburbs, while areas to the south and southeast are still dry. This may be the pattern into the afternoon: damp north and west, but mainly dry in the immediate area and to the south and east. By this evening, steady rain is expected to overspread the entire region.

Forecast models now are suggesting the tonight’s rain, which may be heavy at times, may end on the early side Saturday morning, with the balance of the day dry. They also show the heaviest rainfall, with the best potential for at least an inch of rain, will focus along and east of Interstate 95.

Finally, in another development this morning, some models have increased the chance of light snow or snow showers on Monday, although the prospects for accumulation are limited. We’ll post more on the snow potential if new model data this morning support the chance of anything meaningful.

Original forecast

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

6/10: Much of the day is salvageable. Shower chances slowly increase, especially by late afternoon. Heavier rain holds off until after dark.

Express forecast

  • Today: Slowly rising rain chances. Highs: Around 50 to mid-50s.
  • Tonight: Rains and breezes increase. Lows: Low to mid-40s.
  • Tomorrow: Windy. Decreasing rain chances. Highs: Upper 40s to low 50s.
  • Sunday: Sunnier but very breezy. Highs: Around 40 to mid-40s.

Forecast in detail

Enjoy today’s relative tranquility with (merely) increasing shower chances. Heavier rains tonight could produce patchy flooding into tomorrow morning. Winds start whipping by the time we wake up Saturday, and it’s still breezy Sunday. All thanks to a large nor’easter affecting the East Coast.

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Today (Friday): Mid- and high-level clouds dominate the sky. A couple of morning sprinkles or showers are possible, but they’ll be brief if they appear. We could see some milky peeks of sunshine before rain chances notably grow again by late afternoon. The main rain is moving in from the west and southwest of town as night falls. High temperatures get to around 50 degrees with a few mid-50s possible in warmer, dry spots. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: If you weren’t getting wet already, rain should fill in for all of our region by late evening. Downpours and periods of heavy rain (adding up to one to two inches) are possible as the night wears on and a nor’easter develops going offshore. Stay alert around poorly drained areas or low-lying zones through early Saturday morning. North and northeasterly winds become noticeable by dawn, as temperatures bottom out in the low to mid-40s. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Saturday): It’s windy as rain slowly tapers off. We may see downpours end around sunrise but may still have some pesky showers linger into midday or early afternoon. A few peeks of sunshine are possible, too. Northwesterly winds around 20 mph could gust near 30 mph, but at least they help dry us out somewhat during the afternoon. High temperatures get into the upper 40s to low 50s, though wind chills may often be in the 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Winds and clouds are slowly on the decrease but it’s still noticeably chilly! A snow flurry is possible. Low temperatures bottom out in the low to mid-30s with wind chills in the 20s before dawn. Evening northwesterly breezes around 20 mph are nearer 10 mph by sunrise. Confidence: Medium-High

A look ahead

Sunday: Sunnier skies rule but northwesterly winds could continue to gust around 25 mph at times. Wind chills are in the upper 20s early but 30s throughout the day as the thermometer struggles to top out around 40 degrees to mid-40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday night: Northwesterly breezes may finally wind down below 5 mph as the night wears on. If skies can remain partly cloudy, allowing the ground to cool more effectively, we could see a very chilly night in the mid-20s outside the Beltway to around 30 degrees downtown. Confidence: Medium

It could be a cold, partly cloudy day Monday with a few snow flurries around. High temperatures could struggle to get near 40 degrees in the coldest spots, perhaps mid-40s for more than half the region. We’ll have to see just how cold this air mass ends up being. Stay tuned for small forecast tweaks as we get closer. Confidence: Medium

Sunnier, less cold, but breezier conditions are possible Tuesday. High temperatures should notch a degree or two more than Monday but still generally in the low to mid-40s. It may feel a bit cooler if northwesterly breezes ramp up. We’re almost done with our earliest (4:45 p.m.) sunsets. Hang in there one more day before evening light starts increasing again! Confidence: Medium

Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.