Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

5/10: Frigid start, but highs near 40 with light winds are a decent improvement over yesterday.

Express forecast

  • Today: Partly sunny, less windy, still chilly. Highs: Near 40.
  • Tonight: A few evening flurries? Lows: Upper 20s to low 30s.
  • Tomorrow: Cold with p.m. wintry mix. Highs: Mid- to upper 30s.

Forecast in detail

We close out the weekend still on the cold side, but without the biting wind. Now, let’s get to the more interesting part of the forecast. Tomorrow brings a wintry mix by afternoon, with a light accumulation of snow/sleet possible during the evening. Snow lovers will be more interested in the potential for a more significant winter storm Wednesday night into Thursday, with “potential” being the key word.

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Today (Sunday): Well, there’s much less wind today, so that’s good. We still awake to frigid temperatures in the upper teens to mid-20s. Skies should feature mostly sunny morning skies with increasing clouds by afternoon, as high pressure gradually drifts away. Highs remain on the chilly side, only reaching near 40, with a late-afternoon flurry possible. Winds are light (around 5-10 mph) and variable in direction. Confidence: Medium-High.

Tonight: Could see a few evening flurries as skies turn mostly cloudy through the overnight. Lows drop to the upper 20s to low 30s with light winds. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Monday): Clouds lower and thicken during the morning as a system approaches from the southwest and temperatures climb a few degrees into the mid-30s. We’ll see precipitation arrive from southwest to northeast late morning into early afternoon (around 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.), most likely a mix of rain, sleet and snow (except mostly rain in Southern Maryland). Most of the area should be a little above freezing during the afternoon with little or no accumulation on roads and sidewalks. But Loudoun, Frederick and Carroll counties could be just cold enough for some icy spots to develop on untreated surfaces. Confidence: Medium.

Tomorrow night: As we get into the evening, a combination of mainly sleet and snow could start to accumulate on roads and sidewalks, especially in our colder areas north and west of the Beltway, but a little accumulation is even possible inside the Beltway. The chance of measurable snow/sleet decreases heading south and east of the Beltway, with still mostly plain rain in Southern Maryland. Snow/sleet potential ranges from a trace to around an inch or two (we’ll try to fine-tune that later today). Precipitation should transition to mainly freezing rain (north and west of the Beltway) and rain (inside the Beltway and to the south and east) overnight as lows dip to the low 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium.

A look ahead

The rain and freezing rain should taper off by early Tuesday morning and any icy spots should melt away as morning temperatures rise through the 30s. An isolated shower or two remains possible into the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies, with highs warming back into the low to mid-40s as a light breeze from the northeast keeps it feeling just a bit raw. Partly to mostly cloudy skies persist Tuesday night with lows falling to the low to mid-30s. Confidence: Medium-High.

A light wind from the north keeps the colder air entrenched on Wednesday, again limiting highs to the low to mid-40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium-High.

We’re tracking the chance of a winter storm Wednesday night into Thursday. Significant snow is on the table, but it’s too soon to say whether it will be a big hit, a big miss, or something in between. More to come. … Confidence: Low.

Snow potential index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

4/10 (): Forecast for the coming week trending snowier, with a light accumulation possible Monday evening during a wintry mix event (especially N & W burbs). Potential for more significant snow Wednesday night into Thursday, but storm track still uncertain.