Colder-than-average weather is settling into the Washington region, and the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec. 1) is less than 10 days away. We even tweeted about the possibility of seeing our first snowflakes before November ends.

But will the District actually see substantial snow in the coming months or will it follow the lead of four of the past five winters, with below-average amounts yet again? Here’s your chance to play forecaster.

Through 11 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 30, you can enter your forecast for how much snow you expect from Dec. 1 to March 31 at Reagan National Airport (Washington’s official measurement location), to the nearest tenth of an inch. Any snow that falls before that will not count.

Just fill out the form below to participate.

There is no prize for this competition, but the winner(s) will be recognized here on the Capital Weather Gang in the spring.

Last year, nearly 800 people participated. Six accurately predicted that 5.4 inches would fall during the 2020-2021 winter, but the overwhelming majority of participants overpredicted how much snow would fall; the average reader prediction was 11.9 inches.

If you want some guidance before entering this year’s competition, feel free to consult Capital Weather Gang winter outlook, which calls for 8 to 12 inches at National. But, as we always stress, our outlooks are low-confidence. It would take just one big snowstorm to top our projection.

Here is some additional background information which may help you in your forecast:

  • The average snow at National is now 13.7 inches, based on averages from 1991 to 2020. This is down from 15.4 inches in 1981-2010. The median snowfall was 10 to 12 inches during these two periods.
  • The average snowfall since records have been kept (dating to 1888) in Washington (at National and other locations) is about 18 inches.
  • Washington’s snowiest winter on record occurred in 2009-2010, when 56.1 inches fell. The winters of 1972-73 and 1997-1998 tied for least snowy, with just 0.1 inches.
  • Snowfall totals for the past five winters:
  • 2020-2021: 5.4 inches
  • 2019-2020: 0.6 inches (third-lowest on record)
  • 2018-2019: 16.9 inches
  • 2017-2018: 7.8 inches
  • 2016-2017: 3.4 inches
  • List of all years’ snowfall

Good luck!