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Updated forecast: Snow to increase tonight, turning cold and windy Saturday

At least 2 or 3 inches is a good bet along and east of Interstate 95 through Saturday morning

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Radar courtesy MyRadar | © OpenStreetMap contributors

* Winter weather advisory for most of area into Saturday morning | Blizzard warning for Maryland-Delaware beaches *

3:45 p.m. — For the latest forecast and updates through Saturday, follow our PM Update

Link: The latest snow updates through Friday night

This article will no longer be updated.

2:05 p.m. — Light snow is increasing across region but not accumulating yet. Burst of moderate snow may develop closer to 5 p.m.

Patchy light snow and flurries, which developed this morning, are increasing around the Washington region. Over the past hour, the snow has become a little steadier but, with temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s, it’s mostly not accumulating. This may well be the case until about 4 or 5 p.m.

But between about 5 and 7 p.m., a period of moderate snow is possible, which, combined with falling temperatures, will probably facilitate accumulation. As we noted earlier, it would be best to be off the roads at this time.

10:45 a.m. — Increasing snow forecast for many locations; conditions to deteriorate during evening commute; blizzard warning at the beaches

Today might be a good one to leave work early and be home by about 3 or 4 p.m. or to simply work at home. By dark, steady snow is likely to be falling over much of the region amid falling temperatures. Between 5 and 7 p.m., roads may start to become slick and hazardous.

The latest model data has prompted us to increase snowfall totals one more time, and we now expect at least 2 to 4 inches for areas east of Interstate 95, and 1 to 3 inches along the interstate and to the west.

Snow may develop between midday and midafternoon in our western areas and between about 3 and 6 p.m. elsewhere. As temperatures rise into the mid-30s this afternoon, the snow may not stick at first. But toward dark, they should fall in most places into the low 30s when accumulation should begin.

Models now suggest snow may linger into the early morning hours Saturday in the immediate area and may not taper off in our eastern areas closer to the Bay until midmorning. This is why we have increased potential amounts, particularly in the eastern part of the region. With temperatures falling through the 20s overnight, snow will more rapidly accumulate, and roads will become increasingly slick.

Here’s how much snow the various models currently project for the District: SREF: 4 inches | High-resolution NAM and NAM: 3-4 inches | Canadian and high-resolution Canadian: 2-3 inches | European: Around 2 inches | HRRR: Around 2 inches

Over the Delmarva Peninsula, this will be a serious winter storm, and warnings are have been issued. At the beaches (including Ocean City, Bethany and Rehoboth), blizzard warnings are in effect for up to a foot of snow and winds up to 50 mph. The combination of snow and wind could create whiteout conditions. “Travel could be very difficult to impossible,” the National Weather Service warns. Snow developing this evening may not taper off until Saturday evening.

Original article from 5 a.m.

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

5/10: A little something for everyone? Light snow shouldn’t disrupt daytime travel too much, but it could turn heavier and make a mess as it gets colder late. Snowflakes do appeal to snow lovers!

Express forecast

  • Today: Snow showers/light snow developing. Highs: Mid-30s to 40.
  • Tonight: Heavier evening snow? Lighter and diminishing overnight. Lows: Upper teens to low 20s.
  • Tomorrow: Windy. Snow shower possible. Decreasing clouds. Highs: Mid- to upper 20s.
  • Sunday: More sun than clouds. Highs: Near 30 to mid-30s.

Forecast in detail

A few potential snowflakes this morning becomes steadier — but generally light — tonight as snow accumulates more readily with sundown. There could also be heavier bands in the evening, so keep an eye out for that. Wind later tonight into tomorrow night may bring wind chills to around zero. Luckily, we aren’t in store for a major snowfall akin to the record-setting Knickerbocker snowstorm 100 years ago.

Get our daily forecasts on your Amazon Alexa device.

Today (Friday): Clouds dominate the day. A morning snow or rain shower becomes a light snow developing this afternoon. We may see light snow as soon as early afternoon, with odds of heavier bands growing nearer sunset. High temperatures in the mid-30s to 40 degrees slow accumulation to perhaps a dusting or heavier coating, mainly on grass or elevated surfaces. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Snow should accumulate more easily after sunset, in concert with temperatures heading below freezing and the snow becoming steadier for a while. We could see focused snow bands drop heavier snow for a few hours as well. Slick roads are likely, especially where snow banding develops, so use caution. A coating (north and west) to a few inches is a good bet locally, with higher snowfall totals closer to the bay and eastward over the Delmarva. North winds are on the increase, perhaps gusting near 30 mph late night. This cold wind drops our temperatures by dawn into the upper teens to low 20s. Confidence: Medium

Follow us on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for the latest updates. Keep reading for the forecast into next week.

Tomorrow (Saturday): Any early snow showers move off to the northeast as the coastal storm slams New England. A cloudy morning should slowly let the sun peek through — perhaps even becoming mostly sunny late day. Northwest winds gusting near 30 mph make high temperatures in the mid- to upper 20s feel like single digits. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Skies should remain mostly clear as northwest winds continue to gust near 25 mph at times. Wind chills around zero are possible as the thermometer bottoms out in the low to mid-teens. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Still chilly but merely light breezes should help us “enjoy” high temperatures in the near 30 to mid-30s zone. A sunny morning is currently expected before increasing clouds become noticeable during the afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

A look ahead

Sunday night: Partly to mostly clear skies are currently expected. Low temperatures bottom out in the teens to perhaps low 20s downtown. Confidence: Medium

We should be able to get into at least the 40s Monday and Tuesday, as a warming trend gets underway. Monday may top out around 40 into the low 40s. Tuesday has a chance at eyeing the 50-degree mark, but we need more consistent temperature data as we get closer to be more confident. Skies are generally bright both days, but occasional clouds are probable. Also, the winds may actually be fairly gentle! Confidence: Medium

Snow potential index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

6/10 (↑): Most of the area should see snow accumulation that starts as soon as this afternoon, then ends by early morning Saturday. The most is likely near and east of the bay, but it could be a couple inches locally.

Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.