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D.C.-area forecast: Periodic raindrops throughout the weekend

Sunday may be the wetter of weekend days

Radar courtesy MyRadar | © OpenStreetMap contributors

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: A spooky weather welcome to October. Gray and gloomy, but it could be worse.

Express forecast

  • Today: Occasional showers, storm possible. Highs: Mid-60s.
  • Tonight: Drizzle and a few showers. Lows: 50s.
  • Tomorrow: Widespread showers, periods of rain possible. Highs: Upper 50s to low 60s.

Forecast in detail

The back half of September was quite dry, so perhaps we should have expected a wet start to October. Expected or not, that’s what we’re getting. Temperatures over the next few days remain well below normal during the day. Near-constant dampness also adds a raw tinge to things, especially when considering the gusty wind out of the northeast. We’re into that time of year.

Today (Saturday): Compared with last night, we might spend much of the day in a lull. During the lull, periods of showers are still possible, as is some drizzle and of course that nagging northeast wind. We could even see a storm pop up in the afternoon, although relatively cool surface conditions should keep it from being severe despite plentiful wind shear. Up to about a quarter inch of new rain, but many spots see less. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: We’re stuck in a marine environment, thanks to continued onshore flow. Even without rain, that’s a cloudy and cool pattern around here. At least patchy drizzle seems likely, and shower odds may increase toward morning as the upper-level low associated with former Hurricane Ian’s remnants begin to move eastward out of the south-central Appalachians. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Sunday): As the upper-level swirl associated with Ian crosses Virginia, odds of showers and perhaps some storms are up. The vortex aloft will be starting to kick up a new low pressure offshore as well, which could toss some added moisture into the region. The rainfall target for the day is about half an inch in the wetter spots. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Showers and raw conditions are set to linger. With the low cranking up offshore, northeast winds continue to blow. Low temperatures dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

The offshore low further develops Monday. It’s in no hurry to leave. Over time, it should trend far enough off the coast that any rain tends to be light and probably in passing, but some showers are certainly a good bet during the midday and afternoon. The heaviest is probably east. High temperatures are right around 60. Confidence: Low-Medium

It’s not out of the question that the ocean low is still hanging out to our east Tuesday. With some luck, it’ll be far enough east that its grip is loosened. Partial sunshine could be achieved as temperatures rise to the low and mid-60s for highs. Confidence: Low-Medium