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D.C.-area forecast: Waves of rain through evening, and a potential tornado risk

Weak tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially south. Patchy flooding?

3 min

Radar courtesy MyRadar | © OpenStreetMap contributors

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of zero to 10.

2/10. Mild and muggy. Welcome rain but patchy flooding possible. #Nicole may even spawn brief tornadoes? Not my favorite Friday.

Express forecast

  • Today: Windy, showery. Severe weather possible. Highs: Around 70 to low 70s.
  • Tonight: Windy with downpours and storms. Lows: 60s.
  • Tomorrow: Breezy. Sunnier. Highs: Low to mid-60s.
  • Sunday: Breezy, chilly. Highs: Upper 40s to low 50s.

Forecast in detail

A few severe storms with damaging wind gusts — perhaps even a tornado — are possible late today and into the evening. Patchy flooding can’t be ruled out as Nicole moves to our west. We turn very chilly Saturday night with cool air dominating at least through Tuesday.

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Today (Veterans Day): Windy and stormy. Several waves of showers, downpours and thunderstorms are likely. There are also drier moments to be had. A few brief tornadoes are possible, especially south of the Potomac. Muggy high temperatures top out around 70 to low 70s. Southeasterly winds gusting near 30 mph are possible, with higher gusts possible within storms. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: More downpours and thunderstorms are possible. We continue to have to monitor the twin threats of patchy flooding and possibly a few weak tornadoes, although the risk of the latter wanes a bit with sunset. Nicole continues to whip up southeasterly, and then westerly, wind gusts near 40 mph as she passes well to our west. Muggy temperatures may hover in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Saturday): After any lingering early morning showers, skies quickly clear and turn sunny. Strong westerly winds may gust around 20 mph, but they help us dry out. High temperatures should briefly touch the mid-60s before chillier air begins moving in nearer sunset. Clouds may increase again in the afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Skies are mostly cloudy and we turn colder. Northwesterly winds occasionally gusting near 20 mph help usher in low temperatures in the mid-30s to low 40s. A brief rain shower or even some frozen graupel (snow grains) can’t be ruled out in the early morning hours. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Sunshine should dominate more and more as the day wears on. Northwesterly breezes remain a semi-constant, with a few gusts around 25 mph possible. High temperatures struggle to reach the upper 40s to low 50s. Windchills may be in the 30s for half the day. Confidence: Medium

A look ahead

Sunday night: Skies clear and breezes may calm a bit. This combination allows an effective cooling of the area, with widespread freezing conditions looking likely. Low temperatures dip into the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium

Cold remains on Monday but at least breezes should slacken a bit. Sunshine should be fairly visible over any periodic clouds, as it looks now. Mid- to upper 40s for high temperatures are the coldest we have seen in quite some time. Confidence: Medium

Our next rain chance may approach later Tuesday with clouds building out ahead of it. Similar temperatures to Monday are possible, with mid- to upper 40s. Stay tuned for timing and rain amounts, assuming this rain chance materializes, as we get closer. Confidence: Low-Medium