Today (Monday): This is the week’s warmest day — by far. Early clouds and fog may slow the warm-up, but once the sun emerges in the morning, temperatures should be off to the races. Afternoon highs range from the mid- to upper 50s with light winds from the south. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: A cold front drops into the region overnight, increasing clouds and putting an end to the spring fling. Lows are mostly in the mid-30s as winds shift to coming from the north, with some gusts up to 20 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
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Tomorrow (Tuesday): As a weak wave of low pressure forms along the cold front sinking to our south, some patchy light rain could develop. This won’t amount to much, and it may miss some areas (especially from the District north) but it will be cloudy and cool with highs mostly in the low 40s. Winds are from the north around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: It remains cloudy, and there’s an outside chance (20 to 40 percent) that some light precipitation skirts the area (highest odds south of the Beltway). With temperatures falling to near 30, any rain would probably switch to light snow (north) or a wintry mix (south), so we’ll need to monitor this closely. Confidence: Medium
A look ahead
After a cloudy start, Wednesday turns partly to mostly sunny, but it’s rather cold, with highs of 35 to 40. It’s partly cloudy at night, with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High
The next cold front — a strong one — will push through the area during the second half of Thursday, Groundhog Day. There could be some precipitation (rain or wet snow) along its leading edge in the afternoon or evening, but current indications are that it shouldn’t amount to much. Highs should reach the low 40s before dropping through the 30s at night as winds increase. Confidence: Medium
Friday and Saturday are both blustery and very cold — the chilliest of 2023 so far. Temperatures on Friday hold steady in the low to mid-30s for much of the day, with wind chills not much above 20. During the evening, temperatures then plunge through the 20s before settling in the teens Saturday morning; wind chills could dip to near zero. On Saturday, despite sunshine, highs may struggle to top 25 to 30 degrees. Clouds increase Saturday night, with lows near 20. Confidence: Medium
Cloudy skies on Sunday with a small chance of light snow, snow or mixed precipitation. Highs are near 40. Confidence: Low-Medium
Snow potential index
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
1/10 (→): A chance of flakes Tuesday night and maybe late Thursday and Sunday, but accumulation is unlikely.