How did the conflict start?

In early November 2020, Abiy said Tigrayans had attacked a national military base. He responded by sending troops to the region, which is governed by the TPLF — a political party that once held major influence across the country. In a televised broadcast days later, Abiy announced the Ethiopian military had bombed Tigray, destroying weaponry near the regional capital of Mekele. Several days later, hundreds of people may have been killed in a knife-and-machete attack in the town of Mai-Kadra, according to Amnesty International. It wasn’t immediately clear who was responsible. “We have confirmed the massacre of a very large number of civilians, who appear to have been day laborers in no way involved in the ongoing military offensive,” Deprose Muchena, the human rights watchdog’s East and Southern Africa director, said in a statement at the time. The group demanded both sides prioritize civilian safety and called on the government to restore communication to the region, which was reportedly cut off in early November. On Nov. 14, Tigrayan forces fired missiles at targets in Eritrea. The conflict soon escalated, with reports of not only fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigray rebels but also the arrival of Eritrean soldiers who had crossed the border. Earlier this year, opposition groups have said, the death toll from the Tigray conflict came to at least 52,000 , while the United Nations said more than 61,000 Ethiopians fled into Sudan . Although the Ethiopian government has said the conflict in Tigray is largely over, accounts of violence continue to emerge. In February, Amnesty International released a report that stated Ethiopian and Eritrean forces had committed war crimes during an offensive to take control of the town of Axum, with one massacre by Eritrean troops during a roughly 24-hour period over Nov. 28 to 29 a potential crime against humanity. Eritrean troops “went on a rampage and systematically killed hundreds of civilians in cold blood, which appears to constitute crimes against humanity,” said Muchena. Eritrea’s information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, disputed the account, telling The Washington Post that it was “utterly false.”

Why had there been tension with Tigray leaders?

Tensions had long been brewing among Abiy and leaders from the TPLF, which has seen its national authority dwindle since Abiy took office in 2018. As prime minister, Abiy dismantled the long-standing ruling coalition, led for years by the TPLF, and created the new Prosperity Party. Jason Mosley, a research associate at Oxford University’s African Studies Center, said the move essentially “created a situation where [the TPLF] either had to join the Prosperity Party and submit to his program, or not, in which case they were out.” It opted not to join. Abiy won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize in large part in recognition of his efforts to normalize relations with Eritrea, which shares a border with Tigray. Eritrea, an extremely closed-off country, was once a part of Ethiopia but gained independence in 1993 after a 30-year struggle. From 1998 to 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea fought in a war that left tens of thousands dead. The two countries remained enemies for the next 18 years . When Abiy’s government postponed this year’s elections, citing coronavirus concerns, Tigrayan officials opposed the move and held their election anyway. Abiy refused to recognize results from the September vote, adding to hostilities. The postponement gave both sides grounds to discount the other. “They can both declare each other illegitimate,” said Payton Knopf, formerly a senior adviser to the European Institute of Peace who now works for the State Department, told The Washington Post last November. In October, Ethiopian lawmakers approved a plan to withhold federal funding for Tigray, further inflaming the tensions.

What’s happening now?

After months of relative calm, reports of new fighting in Tigray emerged over recent weeks. The airstrike on the market near Togoga in June sparked international condemnation, although Ethiopian leaders said the strike killed only combatants and not civilians. Aid workers have also been targeted. Three Doctors Without Borders employees were killed in an ambush just days after the airstrike, with dueling accusations of responsibility. UNICEF’s offices in Mekele were raided by Ethiopian forces on Monday, according to the U.N. children’s agency . The TPLF appeared to have made major gains over recent days, cumulating in the capture of Mekele. Leaders from the group have told reporters they had no intention of stopping fighting. Speaking to reporters this week, Ethiopian spokesman Redwan said “Ethiopia is exposed to an attack from outsiders” — an apparent reference to Sudanese troops who have become embroiled in border clashes during the Tigray conflict. Meanwhile, Abiy is awaiting the results of the country’s national and regional parliamentary elections that were held on June 21. Widespread security concerns and other issues meant the election was not held in Tigray and two other regions. The renewed tension has brought new global focus to the problem. U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said he had spoken with Abiy, and he was “hopeful an effective cessation of hostilities will take place.” The U.N. Security Council is expected to meet to discuss Tigray this week. This report has been updated.

Africa

What’s behind the renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region?

By Adam Taylor

and

Siobhán O'Grady

June 30, 2021 at 3:53 p.m. EDT

Ethiopian government soldiers ride in the back of a truck on a road near Agula, north of Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia in May. (Ben Curtis/AP)

correction

An earlier version of this article said that only three regions of Ethiopia voted in recent election. In fact, three regions of the country did not vote. This article has been corrected.

Tensions between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government in Addis Ababa and leaders from the country’s northern Tigray region entered a new phase this week, as rebels seized Mekele, the regional capital, and government forces fled.

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Ethiopian troops and their Eritrean allies had occupied the city for months, following a wave of conflict last November. On Monday, Ethiopia’s government announced it had called a unilateral cease-fire in the region, but it wasn’t clear if Tigrayan forces would stop the fighting.

“Our forces are still in hot pursuit to south, east, to continue until every square inch of territory is cleared from the enemy,” Getachew Reda, spokesman for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, told Reuters on Tuesday.

In a video posted on Wednesday, Abiy confirmed Ethiopian troops had left Mekele but said it was because the city had “lost its center of gravity in the current context.”

Though Ethiopian leaders have portrayed their cease-fire as the culmination of a successful military operation, Redwan Hussein, spokesman for the Ethiopian government’s task force for Tigray, told reporters the same day that troops could return to the region “if it is required.”

The conflict in Tigray has cast a pall over Abiy’s presidency, in the wake of his 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for domestic reform and forging peace with neighboring Eritrea. Last November, as tensions with the regional Tigray government came to a head, Eritrean forces were reported to have crossed the border.

In the ensuing crisis, rights groups reported massacres that left hundreds of people dead as tens of thousands fled as refugees to neighboring Sudan amid fears of a full-blown civil war.

United Nations agencies said this month that the conflict had contributed to conditions that saw more than 350,000 people in Tigray suffering famine conditions, while millions more were at risk.

With Internet blackouts and only limited access for foreign observers and reporters, news about the situation has been limited. In June, international leaders condemned reports of an airstrike hitting a crowded market near the village of Togoga.