What do Tajikistan and other neighbors fear?

They are afraid the situation could slide out of control, fast. Tajikistan, the poorest of the post-Soviet states, relies heavily on Russia for support and hosts a major Russian military base with about 7,000 personnel. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday noted worries that the conflict could spread to Tajikistan, but added that Russia would not intervene as long as fighting remained inside Afghan borders. A Tajik official, Hasan Sultonov, said Wednesday it was unlikely Tajikistan could control the border with Afghanistan without outside help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led regional military alliance. Tajikistan had called on the alliance for help, he said, as cited by RIA Novosti. “Given the current situation in the region, as well as the remoteness and mountainous terrain of some parts of the border with Afghanistan, dealing with this challenge on our own seems difficult,” said Sultonov, a representative to the security organization. Tajikistan and its neighbors on Afghanistan’s border fear an upsurge in Islamist extremism, including among Tajik and Uzbek groups.

How is Tajikistan handling the border?

Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon phoned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. Rahmon also sent 20,000 army reservists to guard the border and phoned the leaders of neighboring countries. Putin promised Russia would offer Tajikistan any direct support it needed, adding that the CSTO was also ready to act. Russian military forces in Tajikistan staged a training exercise Tuesday, firing missiles and simulating action to repel an invasion.

Why is Russia’s military in Tajikistan?

Tajikistan’s 840-mile border with Afghanistan has long been trouble. It has been a major drug smuggling route for decades, with traffickers plying narrow mountain passes or bribing poorly paid border guards. For years, Russia has been concerned about a flood of Islamic State extremists — and drugs — into the region. It stationed Russian forces along the border until 2005 and, according to some analysts, wants to reassert its grip. Russia sees the region as its rightful political orbit. Putin would probably resist any new American military presence in Central Asia after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, amid reports that Washington hopes to base forces there.

What about plans for new U.S. bases in Central Asia?

Putin did not stand in the way of American bases in the region when the United States launched its military operation to oust the Taliban after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. But Washington’s relations with Russia are now in a deep freeze. Temur Umarov, of the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote that Washington would have to prove to Central Asian leaders that the financial and political benefits of hosting a U.S. base would outweigh the problems they would face by angering Russia and China, which also has a growing presence in the region. “That won’t be easy,” he concluded. The Biden administration has reportedly asked the leaders of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to help by temporarily hosting Afghan families with members who worked with the United States as interpreters , drivers or other roles.

What does the Taliban say?

During talks in Moscow on Thursday, a Taliban delegation from the group’s political office in Qatar promised Russian officials that the group would not threaten any CSTO countries, officials from both sides said. At a news conference, Taliban representative Mohammad Suhail Shaheen added that the Taliban would fight Islamic State affiliates, calling them “alien” to Afghanistan. “We guarantee that our territory will never again be used against a third country,” another Taliban official, Shahabuddin Delawar, told reporters. Shaheen also said the group would not target those who worked for U.S. forces. “These contacts are necessary against the backdrop of the tense situation in Afghanistan and the situation unfolding on the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

What is Russia’s position?

It blames the United States. Lavrov called for the total pullout of U.S. forces in 2019 when he met Taliban officials in Moscow. He now criticizes Washington for its “hasty withdrawal.” “The situation is rapidly deteriorating, including in the context of the hasty withdrawal of American and other NATO troops, who over their decades of their stay in this country have not achieved visible results in terms of stabilizing the situation there,” Lavrov said Wednesday, the state-run news agency Tass reported. He said Thursday that Washington had increased the threat of terrorism in the region, calling the U.S. military withdrawal an admission of failure. With the surge in fighting, Islamic State fighters were “creating and filling niches” to gain a greater foothold, Lavrov said, increasing the risk of terrorist attacks, while the Taliban had become more belligerent. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and fought its own war against U.S.-backed mujahideen insurgents. It withdrew a decade later, also having failed to stabilize the country.

Europe

Why Afghanistan’s growing chaos alarms leaders from Tajikistan to Russia

By Robyn Dixon

July 9, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. EDT

Afghan soldiers sit at a bridge next to the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border in Tajikistan on June 22, in this photo released by border troops in Tajikistan. (Border Troops of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan/AP)

MOSCOW — A surge of fighting in northern Afghanistan has the country’s Central Asian neighbors scrambling to prevent the conflict spilling across the borders as the withdrawal of U.S. troops moves into its final stages. Russia, too, is watching with alarm in a region Moscow considers part of its sphere of influence.

Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

At least 1,500 soldiers of the Afghan army — which the United States spent billions of dollars training over nearly two decades — have fled across the border into Tajikistan to escape Taliban advances. The Afghan soldiers were flown back to Kabul, according to Afghan officials.

More than 1,000 refugees, mainly women and children, also crossed into Tajikistan and officials fear more could flood across the border. Uzbekistan, which also borders Afghanistan, has set up a tent city outside the city of Termez in anticipation of refugees, Eurasianet reported, citing local residents.

Meanwhile, video showed Taliban fighters controlling the main border bridge across the Pyanj River at Sher Khan Bandar, linking Afghanistan with Tajikistan, netting the group valuable customs revenue. The $37 million U.S.-funded bridge, opened in 2007, is the main northern Afghanistan gateway for truck freight.