Slight edge for Social Democrats in race to succeed Merkel in German election, projection shows

The top rivals to succeed Merkel as chancellor said Sunday that a new government should be formed before Christmas — even though both have very different ideas of what it should look like.

“I think it would be absurd to give an exact date. But I, and we, should do everything to be ready before Christmas. A bit sooner would be good, too,” Olaf Scholz, the chancellor candidate of the Social Democratic Party, said on German television after projections showed his party in a close race with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, now led by Armin Laschet.

Laschet, too, said a coalition should “definitely” be formed before Christmas.

Such scenarios would delay Merkel’s planned retirement, leaving her in charge until a new government can be hammered out.

The combinations for coalitions depend largely on the Greens and, potentially, the business-friendly Free Democrats. The Greens prefer to ally with Scholz’s party and the Free Democrats with Laschet’s.

Only sure thing in Germany’s tight election: Battles ahead to forge a post-Merkel government

BERLIN — Cheers echoed through the Columbiahalle, near Berlin’s historic Tempelhof airfield, as exit polls showing 15 percent of the vote for the Greens flashed on the screens at the party’s election night venue.

If the poll results are accurate, 15 percent would be a record for the 40-year-old party. But that’s a drop of about 10 points from where it was polling earlier this year.

“We have the best election results in our history,” said Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ first candidate for chancellor. “But we can’t just be cheering tonight. We wanted more, and we failed to achieve that because of mistakes made at the beginning of the campaign. Mistakes made by me.”

Baerbock, 40, initially appeared to have a shot at the chancellor job. But blunders derailed her surge: a failure to declare expenses in time, embellishments on her résumé, and allegations of plagiarism in her book.

Still, when Baerbock strode onto the stage Sunday, the crowd appeared to be in a forgiving mood. Her speech was interrupted by loud cheers and waves of clapping. Despite being projected to fall short at the national level, the Greens may make some regional gains. In Berlin’s local elections, which also took place Sunday, the Greens were predicted to lead the field.

BERLIN — The Social Democrats and Christian Democrats remained neck and neck in the vote to succeed Merkel on Sunday. But at the Social Democrats’ headquarters in Berlin, party activists and staffers behaved as if they had already won the election.

“This will be a long election night,” said Olaf Scholz, the party’s front-runner, amid cheers and applause from his supporters. “But what’s also clear is that a lot of voters cast their ballots for the Social Democrats because they want a change in government, and also because they want the next chancellor to be called Olaf Scholz.”

Later, as one projection showed the Social Democrats with a one-percentage-point lead, long lines formed at beer and currywurst stands. Some people danced to party music.

Sunday’s festive mood at the SPD’s headquarters marked a strong contrast to election night four years ago, when the party came in 12 percentage points behind the Christian Democrats.

“The joy is enormous,” Malu Dreyer, the Social Democratic minister-president of the state of Rhineland-Palatinate and former deputy chairwoman of the party, told The Post. “We have really caught up over the last few weeks — the SPD is back, and we’re a people’s party, there’s no doubt about that.”

“I’m fairly confident that we have the lead,” she added.

BERLIN — The lead candidate for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union expressed disappointment with initial exit polls but said he would try to do everything he could to build a coalition and keep the party in government.

At the Konrad Adenauer Haus, the conservative CDU’s headquarters in Berlin, the initial exit polls were met with hushed murmurs. One put the party and its center-left rival, the Social Democrats, neck and neck with 25 percent each. Another put the Social Democrats two points ahead.

“We cannot be satisfied with the result,” Armin Laschet, the chancellor candidate for the CDU and its smaller ally, the Christian Social Union, said as he spoke before party officials and the media at the party headquarters.

Analysts warn that exit polls could be less accurate than usual this time around because of the large number of mail-in ballots. But the CDU is looking at the possibility of suffering its worst result in history.

Still, Laschet said he would do “everything possible” to form a government led by his party. There’s nothing in German law that mandates that the largest party gets to form a government, leaving open the possibility that the CDU may try to form one even if it comes in behind its rivals.

The biggest applause came as the exit polls showed that a government between the Social Democrats, the Greens and the left-wing Die Linke might not be possible, making it potentially complicated for the Social Democrats, the CDU’s chief rival, to forge a coalition, too.

In echoes of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, all eyes are on Germany’s mail-in votes in a tight race for leadership.

Election officials predict mail-in ballots could account for more than 40 percent of the total. As in other countries, the increase in vote-by-post has been attributed to the coronavirus pandemic. Four years ago, about 29 percent of Germans returned their ballots by mail.

The mail-in votes were tallied Sunday at the same time as votes from polling stations. But the mail-ins were not part of exit polls, which put Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats in a virtual tie.

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party has sought to portray mail-in voting as unsafe and has raised the possibility of fraud. Election officials have rejected those claims as unfounded.

“Postal votes have been around since 1957, and to this day we have no evidence of irregularities to an extent that they could influence the election result,” election official Georg Thiel told the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland news outlet before the vote.

One early projection put the center-left Social Democrats slightly ahead of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats shortly after voting ended Sunday. Another projection said the parties were side by side.

A projection by the pollsters Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and public broadcaster ZDF gave the Social Democrats a small edge over the Christian Democrats, whose candidate, Armin Laschet, is seeking to succeed the retiring Merkel as chancellor. But a projection by broadcaster ARD showed the two parties effectively tied.

Analysts have cautioned that early projections and exit polls may swing more than usual this time because of the large number of mail-in votes.

A closely watched exit poll put both Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats and their center-left rivals, the Social Democrats, at 25 percent. The Infratest dimap poll is based on a random sample of voters. Such exit polls have showed only small deviations from the actual results in past elections. But analysts say the exit polls could be less accurate this time because of the large number of mail-in ballots, which could account for as much as 40 percent of the vote.

A separate exit poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a private polling group contracted by the German broadcaster ZDF, showed the Social Democrats leading the Christian Democrats by 2 percentage points.

Exit polls also showed the far-left Die Linke party at around 5 percent, meaning that it may fail to reach the threshold to enter parliament. That outcome could have significant implications for all parties and their available options to form a coalition government.

Climate change and the environment are top concerns for the German electorate, far ahead of the coronavirus pandemic or immigration, according to surveys.

All three major parties — the center-left Social Democrats, the conservative Christian Democrats and the Greens — have promised action on climate change.

The Greens, which have put forward the most extensive proposals, topped national polls earlier this summer but have since dropped to third place behind the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats.

Younger voters, in particular, seek decisive action on climate issues. But they also fear that the Green party’s slump could leave it in a weakened position in any coalition government it may join.