Since at least October, Russian military movements near the Ukrainian border have been prompting worries among U.S. and European officials about the possibility that Moscow is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive in Ukraine early next year.
Russian military movements near Ukraine: What satellite images show
According to an unclassified U.S. intelligence analysis obtained by The Washington Post last week, a large-scale offensive could come to include as many as 175,000 Russian forces, including reservists being mobilized by the Russian armed forces.
The analysis stated that some 70,000 Russian forces are already near the border with Ukraine. Though it is unclear how the analysis arrived at that number, a significant portion of those are probably forces permanently stationed at military facilities near Russia’s western border and in Crimea, a peninsula Russia forcibly annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
Some of the forces and materiel, however, have moved toward the Ukrainian border from other places in Russia, including as far away as Siberia.
Janes, a defence intelligence company, has been tracking the movement of Russian military equipment and troops sent east from Siberia since the Spring of this year.
EST.
Nizhny
Novgoro
Mulino training
ground
LATVIA
2
Moscow
LITH.
RUSSIA
3
Yelnya
BELARUS
RUSSIA
POLAND
1
March-April
Pogonovo training
ground
Russia’s Central Military District begins to deploy troops and equipment from Siberia to Pogonovo training ground.
1
Kyiv
2
June-August
Some of the equipment is deployed to the Mulino training ground to participate in a military exercise. The vast majority of the equipment remains in Pogonovo.
UKRAINE
Luhansk
Donetsk
Separatist-
controlled
area
3
September-October
Odessa
Equipment deployed at Mulino is moved to Yelnya after the exercise instead of returning to Siberia as Russian Ministry of Defense originally announced. In October, more equipment at Pogonovo is seen being shipped to Yelnya.
200 MILES
CRIMEA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
Black Sea
GEORGIA
Source: Janes
Janes, a defence intelligence company, has been tracking the movement of Russian military equipment and troops sent east from Siberia since the Spring.
1
March-April
Russia’s Central Military District begins to deploy troops and equipment from Siberia to Pogonovo training ground.
2
June-August
Some of the equipment is deployed to the Mulino training ground to participate in a military exercise. The vast majority of the equipment remains in Pogonovo.
3
September-October
Equipment deployed at Mulino is moved to Yelnya after the exercise instead of returning to Siberia as Russian Ministry of Defense originally announced. In October, more equipment at Pogonovo is seen being shipped to Yelnya.
Nizhny
Novgoro
RUSSIA
2
Mulino
training
ground
Moscow
3
Yelnya
200 MILES
BELARUS
Pogonovo
training
ground
1
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Luhansk
Donetsk
Separatist-
controlled
area
Odessa
RUSSIA
CRIMEA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
Black Sea
GEORGIA
Source: Janes
Janes, a defence intelligence company, has been tracking the movement of Russian military equipment and troops sent east from Siberia since the Spring.
1
March-April
Russia’s Central Military District begins to deploy troops and equipment from Siberia to Pogonovo training ground.
2
June-August
Some of the equipment is deployed to the Mulino training ground to participate in a military exercise. The vast majority of the equipment remains in Pogonovo.
3
September-October
Equipment deployed at Mulino is moved to Yelnya after the exercise instead of returning to Siberia as Russian Ministry of Defense originally announced. In October, more equipment at Pogonovo is seen being shipped to Yelnya.
RUSSIA
2
Mulino
training
ground
Moscow
3
Yelnya
200 MILES
BELARUS
Pogonovo
training
ground
1
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Luhansk
Donetsk
Separatist-
controlled
area
Odessa
CRIMEA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
Black Sea
GEORGIA
Source: Janes
Satellite images offer a partial snapshot of the materiel associated with those forces currently being housed in proximity to Ukraine.
Yelnya
Yelnya
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Separatist-
controlled
area
200 MILES
Crimea
Black Sea
For weeks, military analysts have been keeping an eye on the small Russian city of Yelnya, southeast of Smolensk. The city — not far from the Ukrainian border — is home to the headquarters of the Russian army’s 144th Motor Rifle Division. But the division recently has had some guests.
Satellite images below show vehicle stores at the division’s garrison that were established in October. The equipment includes more than 500 armored vehicles, Iskander road-mobile ballistic missile launchers, artillery, communications and logistics support, according to the defense analysis firm Janes.
The equipment most likely belongs to the 41st Combined Arms Army, normally located in Siberia, and the 90th Tank Division, based near the Ural Mountains, according to Janes.
Much of the force and its equipment first moved to the western part of Russia near the city of Voronezh during a buildup near the Ukrainian border in March and April. Then, the Russian military said it was keeping the materiel in the area to use during planned exercises in the area this September. After those exercises took place, however, the materiel didn’t return home but went to Yelnya instead, according to Janes.
Pogonovo
RUSSIA
BELARUS
Pogonovo
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Separatist-
controlled
area
200 MILES
Crimea
Black Sea
A Russian military training ground called Pogonovo, south of Voronezh, has attracted attention from analysts all year.
In March and April, during Russia’s first buildup of 2021, the site hosted much of the equipment from the Central Military District that has now moved to Yelnya, according to Janes. Once that equipment emptied out, the site began hosting new materiel associated with elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, normally based outside Moscow.
The images below show two garrisons at the Pogonovo training grounds, each of which appears to be hosting a battalion-size element of around 30 main battle tanks, according to Janes. In addition to the tanks, other materiel has flowed into the site, including howitzers, thermobaric multiple rocket launchers and long-range multiple rocket launchers, Janes said.
The defense analysis group noted that there isn’t enough accommodation at the site to house sufficient personnel to operate the materiel, suggesting the equipment is being forward deployed.
Russian forces have begun to construct additional dividing walls within the main garrison — one of which is completely empty in the bottom photo — suggesting additional equipment is expected here, according to Janes.
Crimea
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Separatist-
controlled
area
Novoozerne
200 MILES
Crimea
Black Sea
Analysts have also been tracking movements of Russian forces in Crimea. Russia has built up its military presence on the peninsula since its takeover in 2014, making the region a likely staging ground for any new operation in Ukraine.
The images below show a vehicle garrison on the southern coast of Crimea.
Janes said the garrison — first established in late 2020 but expanded this year — houses large numbers of main battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers and towed howitzers, probably belonging to units from the 58th Combined Arms Army, headquartered in faraway Vladikavkaz. Janes said those units deployed to the area during the first buildup last spring.
There is a large, empty storage site on the west side of the garrison that probably will be used to store additional equipment or provide troop accommodation in the event of an offensive, according to Janes. As it stands, there appears to be insufficient accommodation on-site to house enough personnel to operate the tanks and weaponry, Janes said.