Who are the contenders?

The battleground state of Uttar Pradesh is primed for a fierce multiparty contest featuring the incumbent chief minister from the BJP, Yogi Adityanath, a 49-year-old monk with militant views and a criminal record from decades ago. Adityanath’s tenure, critics say, has been marked by legislation targeting the state’s Muslim minority , murky police shootings , and the harassment and intimidation of civil society activists. His main challenger, Akhilesh Yadav, 48, is a former chief minister and a politician from a low-ranked caste who leads the Samajwadi, or Socialist party. The son of a three-time former chief minister, Yadav is seeking to counter his image of hailing from a political dynasty and charges that his previous stint in power was marked by law-and-order issues. Mayawati, a former chief minister who heads a party of Dalits, once known as untouchables, is also among the contenders, while India’s main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, is less influential in the state.

What are the main issues?

These elections were widely expected to be a vote on the handling of the BJP government’s response to the pandemic. Hundreds of thousands died as the health-care infrastructure collapsed during the devastating delta variant wave in April and May, and two severe lockdowns left millions unemployed. In recent weeks, however, identity politics have replaced governance issues. Since December, an explosion of hate speech against Muslims has erupted in gatherings led by Hindu religious leaders. While multiple police complaints were filed against the events where crowds pledged to kill Muslims, the police have taken little action against those involved. The BJP has sought to benefit from such polarization, experts say, and made communally charged references in the run-up to the election. Adityanath has called the upcoming election a battle between 80 percent and 20 percent, pitching it as a Hindu vs. Muslim contest. (Muslims make up nearly 20 percent of the state’s population and 14 percent of the national population.) Referring to communal violence in Uttar Pradesh in 2013 that left dozens of Muslims dead, Amit Shah, the country’s home minister and Modi’s powerful deputy, charged the opposition party with turning the “accused” into “victims.” Caste, a discriminatory system based on birth, is also a big factor in voters’ choice of electing representatives in Uttar Pradesh.

Why are the Uttar Pradesh elections so important?

Uttar Pradesh elections have long been considered a bellwether for national politics. Experts say the outcome of these elections will be pivotal for Modi’s bid for a third term in 2024 and will decide what kind of a democracy the country will be. In the previous national elections, the BJP won a majority of the 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh, which sends the largest number of legislators to Parliament. If the party loses Uttar Pradesh, it will make the next national election more competitive and damage Modi’s popularity, which has remained largely intact through several crises. For the opposition parties, the state election offers a chance to tap into public disenchantment on issues such as unemployment and inflation. For the BJP, the fight for Uttar Pradesh is also rooted in symbolism. In the 1990s, the BJP catapulted into the national spotlight after its top leaders led a campaign resulting in the illegal demolition of a 16th-century mosque in Ayodhya, a holy city in the state. Now, Modi is building a grand temple at the disputed site after a court handed it to the Hindus. “This is the state, where, historically, every ideological battle the BJP has been fighting takes place in more exacerbated forms,” wrote political analyst Gilles Verniers.

When and how will the election take place?

Uttar Pradesh will hold staggered polls spread over seven phases between Feb. 10 and March 7. Manipur, a small state in the northeast will vote in two phases, while the other three states will vote on a single day. All votes will be counted, and results declared, March 10. India’s election commission, which regulates how much each candidate can spend on their campaign, hiked the spending limit of each candidate in the upcoming election to $54,000 for large states such as Uttar Pradesh. Voters are casting ballots to elect representatives to their respective state legislatures. If no party wins a majority in each state, parties typically form an alliance government. Read more: Indian officials announce elections, ban rallies as new daily cases soar to 160,000 India’s coronavirus cases rise as omicron spreads — and as election season heats up Coronavirus has crushed India’s health system. Patients are on their own.

India’s 2022 state elections: What’s at stake for the BJP

By Niha Masih

February 10, 2022 at 2:00 a.m. EST

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath waits to address an election rally in Shamli, India, on Feb. 5. (Rajesh Kumar Singh/AP)

NEW DELHI — Five states in India will head to the polls beginning Thursday to kick off a high-stakes election season that experts say is likely to determine the political direction of the world’s largest democracy — and the fortunes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

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More than 180 million voters — greater than the population of Russia — are eligible to cast ballots in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa. The BJP is in power in four of the states, which several opposition parties are seeking to recapture.

The prize catch is Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state. A flat expanse in northern India, Uttar Pradesh is home to some of the country’s poorest communities, but given its size often holds the key to power in New Delhi.

The elections this time are being held under the shadow of the pandemic, with restrictions on rallies and public meetings. Last year, Indian officials were criticized by health experts for conducting state elections despite signs that a second wave was taking hold in the country.

Here’s what you need to know about these elections.