What are the chances Macron loses to Le Pen?

The latest public opinion polls suggest Macron is likely to win but that his margin won’t be nearly as comfortable as in 2017. And an upset is still possible. Macron is ahead of Le Pen by 10 percentage points in The Washington Post’s polling average. That is a sizable lead, though not an insurmountable one for Le Pen, who had surged in the polls before dropping slightly in recent days. The gap is far narrower than when Macron beat Le Pen by more than 30 percentage points five years ago. The far-right leader has benefited from efforts to moderate her image (if not her actual platform), economic frustrations and malaise that is commonly directed toward incumbent leaders in France. One key question to watch will be how — and whether — supporters of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon vote on Sunday. According to The Post’s analysis of the results in 2017, about half of Mélenchon’s first round voters went for Macron in the runoff. Only about 5 percent voted for Le Pen. But about 45 percent stayed home or voted blank. Polls suggest frustration with Macron could both drive up those abstentions and convince more Mélenchon voters to cast their ballots for Le Pen this time. The runoff in 2017 also saw a large polling error, with the margin between Macron and Le Pen underestimated by nearly nine percentage points. While it’s difficult to predict the magnitude and direction of such errors, it’s possible Le Pen could benefit from something similar this year. If she did, it might be enough for her to win the presidency.

Why does the election matter to the world?

A Macron victory would mark the first time in two decades French voters granted a president a second term. A Le Pen victory would mark the first far-right presidency in French history — and would upend politics both in France and in Europe, potentially bolstering Moscow, diminishing NATO and fragmenting the European Union. While Macron has been open to continued dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Le Pen has long portrayed herself as a Putin ally. Although she has condemned Putin’s invasion, she suggested she would halt French weapons transfers to Ukraine, stand in the way of embargoes on Russian oil and gas, and advocate a “ strategic rapprochement ” between NATO and Russia. She has additionally talked about withdrawing France from NATO’s integrated command structure. A Le Pen win would also replace one of the most fervent boosters of the European Union with someone who spent over a decade, from 2004 until 2017, agitating against the E.U. as a Euroskeptic member of the European Parliament. (Le Pen and her party are the subject of several ongoing inquiries into alleged misuse of E.U. funds — allegations she denies.) In this campaign, she has dropped her long-standing calls to withdraw from the E.U. and the euro. But her proposals — to implement new border controls, to give preference to French citizens for certain benefits — would challenge E.U. rules and values. Observers expect she would align with the leaders of Hungary and Poland in their battles with Brussels. But whereas Hungary and Poland’s influence within the E.U. is limited, France has the bloc’s second-largest economy and, along with Germany, tends to determine the bloc’s direction.

What’s important to know about Macron?

Macron, 44, is a former investment banker and economy minister who had never run for office before he launched his own political movement in 2016. He was France’s youngest president when he was elected the following year, and he promised to bring a new style of politics to the Élysée Palace, without any obligations to established parties or orthodoxies. He has been a vocal defender of the European Union. He took tough positions in Brexit negotiations. And he is credited with articulating a vision of Europe that aims to address the sorts of frustrations that propel nationalist movements. But many of his signature projects haven’t taken off. The notion of a European army independent from the United States is still under debate. His push for digital taxes on U.S. tech giants never got full E.U. support, and has been subsumed by the U.S.-led plan for a global corporate minimum tax rate . Macron has talked about putting France “ at the heart of the diplomatic game ,” and he has helped elevate the country’s global profile. Still, none of his major diplomatic efforts have succeeded, whether trying to hold together the Iran nuclear deal, to keep President Donald Trump in the Paris climate accords or to avert Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Macron’s government has been prone to tiffs with allies, threatening to cut off power to Jersey, a British crown dependency, over post-Brexit fishing rights and briefly withdrawing the French ambassador from Rome for the first time since 1940. He also clashed with President Biden over a derailed submarine deal , though many European diplomats blame that episode on the White House. Domestically, Macron went into office aiming to lower unemployment and stimulate economic growth. France is in relatively good shape on both counts. His government helped protect jobs with a furlough program during the pandemic, and the unemployment rate is now at its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Economic growth over the last months of 2021 was stronger in France in many other E.U. countries, including Germany — with the help of 100 billion euros in pandemic stimulus. Still, Macron has been criticized within France as a “president for the rich,” who cut taxes on the wealthy and hasn’t paid sufficient attention to economic and social inequality. These resentments boiled over during months of “yellow vest” protests — which Macron ultimately helped quell with concessions and a listening tour . They have emerged again as Russia’s war in Ukraine has compounded concerns over rising inflation, surging energy prices and insufficient pensions. After campaigning as a centrist, Macron has disgruntled some of his supporters by shifting to the right on immigration and national security. His initiative to influence how Islam is practiced in France has been especially controversial. And his only intermittent focus on climate has further disappointed some on the left. In his final days on the campaign trail, he has made a number of gestures to appeal to those left-leaning voters, including talking about more ambitious environmental targets.

What’s important to know about Le Pen?

Le Pen, 53, took over France’s main far-right party from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, whose history of xenophobia and Holocaust denial had limited the organization’s appeal. Marine Le Pen has gradually sought to moderate the party’s image — and her own. After her loss to Macron in 2017, she changed the name from National Front to National Rally. And in this campaign, she has adopted milder rhetoric, emphasized economic issues over concerns about radical Islam, and suggested she wants to change the French political system from the inside rather than to blow it up. But she continues to advocate far-right policies that would radically alter France. She has said her government would fine women for wearing headscarves in public, she wants a French-first approach to public services and promises that among her first acts as president would be a “referendum to stop immigration.” Although some of her positions harbor echoes of former president Donald Trump, a President Le Pen could be expected to have a thorny relationship with the United States. Objecting to NATO, she has invoked a long-standing Gaullist philosophy that France should control its own defense and avoid “subjection to an American protectorate.” And before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she argued for a Franco-Russian alliance, even if it provoked U.S. sanctions.

What’s driving French voters?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine initially loomed large over the French campaign, boosting Macron’s standing in the polls, as voters appeared to rally behind him as a wartime leader. But domestic issues have since surged back to the forefront of the public debate. The state of the French economy has become a dominant theme in the election. Even though France has emerged more robustly from the pandemic than have some of its neighbors, Le Pen’s campaign has gained momentum by echoing a sentiment that economic growth hasn’t benefited most citizens. Macron has proposed extending some of his policies, including a cap on electricity and natural gas prices that was introduced last year . He has also promised additional tax cuts and more spending on green energy if he is reelected for a second five-year term. Macron has framed his proposals as more realistic than Le Pen’s. The far-right leader wants to scrap income taxes for anyone younger than 30, cut taxes on energy and many basic goods , and go on a government spending spree. Proposed changes to France’s retirement age have also played a role in the campaign. Whereas Macron has proposed raising it from 62 to 64 or 65, Le Pen wants to keep the current age and lower it for some workers. On the right side of the political spectrum, immigration concerns could also drive voters to the polls. Even though Le Pen has focused less on immigration than her far-right challenger Éric Zemmour in this campaign, she continues to push a referendum on immigration and preferential treatment of French nationals — policies that have been condemned as “racist” by Macron.

What’s going on with French politics?

For decades, French national politics evolved around a mainstream center-right party and a center-left party. But Macron, winning in 2017 without the backing of an established mainstream party, shattered the traditional system. The results of the first-round election on April 10 confirmed, at least at the national level, the collapse of what remains of the established centrist organizations. Together, the center-right Les Républicains, represented by Valérie Pécresse, and center-left Socialists, represented by Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, got less than 10 percent of the vote. Instead, what emerged was a three-way contest, with Macron claiming much of the center, while the far-right and far-left surged. Le Pen got a greater portion of the vote than in the first round in 2017, even though she faced a serious far-right challenger this time. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who failed to make it into the runoff, still mobilized 22 percent of voters — his best performance to date. At the end of the night, Mélenchon urged his supporters, “You must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen.” But he didn’t explicitly endorse Macron, either. Though analysts expect French politics to remain polarized, it’s unclear if a three-way split will be the new norm or whether there will be yet another shake-up in future national elections. Macron has no obvious successor within his party. “Macron is in the process of crushing the center of politics — but the more he crushes it, the more he gives room to the radical wings,” said Pierre Mathiot, the director of Sciences Po Lille. “I’m a bit worried for French politics.” Bronner reported from New York.

Europe

Macron vs. Le Pen 2022: What to know about France’s presidential election runoff

By Rick Noack

and

Lenny Bronner

Updated April 22, 2022 at 2:52 p.m. EDT|Published April 21, 2022 at 4:00 a.m. EDT

French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to fend off a victory from far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the presidential election on April 24. (Video: James Cornsilk, Rick Noack, Alexa Juliana Ard/The Washington Post, Photo: Jackie Lay/The Washington Post)

PARIS — French voters go to the polls on Sunday for France’s presidential election runoff between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Macron remains the front-runner, with some seeming momentum behind him, but Le Pen — who is running for the third time — appears closer to the presidency than ever before.

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Polls close on Sunday at 8 p.m. local time, 2 p.m. Eastern, with a projection by France’s public broadcaster expected soon after.