Why might Russia be interested in Transnistria?

The idea of Russia seeking to establish a geographic link to Transnistria has been “in the discourse since at least the 1990s,” said Anton Barbashin, a political analyst at Riddle, an online journal of Russian affairs. Russia has long sought to maintain pockets of influence in Eastern Europe. Moscow continues to support pro-Russian Transnistria with free natural gas and pension supplements, keeping the separatist republic afloat. Rustam Minnekayev, the Russian commander, expressed a desire to establish a path to the Russian-speaking population there, which he suggested, without evidence, was experiencing “oppression.” Russia has repeatedly invoked Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine to justify its assault on the country. When Moldova began its application for European Union membership in early March — a week into the invasion of Ukraine — Transnistrian leaders said they had no intention of doing the same and demanded once again to create “two independent states.” But the area itself doesn’t have a lot of strategic value for Moscow, Barbashin said. Sending troops there would “create more problems than it solves” for Russia, likely triggering additional international sanctions and destroying Moscow’s relationship with Moldova, which is constitutionally neutral and has said it will not join NATO. Still, the war in neighboring Ukraine and the reality of the Russian troop presence in a slice of Moldova has made Moldovans jittery, and worried that Russia could attack them next .

How likely is a Russian advance toward the region?

Not very, analysts say. Russia has sustained heavy losses and reoriented its military efforts on gaining control of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, after attempts to seize Kyiv, the capital, and broader swaths of Ukraine failed. “The conversation about Transnistria is a complete canard,” Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Va, said in April. “The Russian military has no capacity for this kind of offensive. It’s very likely that they will be a spent force after the offensive in Donbas.” The Moldovan government put out a statement in April refuting assertions that Russian speakers in Transnistria faced persecution. But even if Russian troops were to march toward Transnistria, they may not be welcomed with open arms. Though residents of the breakaway republic rely on support from Moscow, some hold Moldovan passports and most of Transnistria’s exports go to the E.U. Transnistrian authorities have offered neither public support nor condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Transnistria shares deep ties with its neighbor, and about 100,000 residents hold Ukrainian citizenship, de facto foreign minister Vitaly Ignatyev said last year. “We stand exclusively for the peace and security of all people who live in” Transnistria, he said. The breakaway republic has taken in thousands of Ukrainian refugees. Transnistria appears to be holding back from supporting Russia in the war and instead is using its hosting of Ukrainian refugees as a means of garnering international legitimacy, analyst Keith Harrington wrote in a blog post . “Our reading of the situation and what we get from the region is that there are very few people in that region who are wanting to trade their existing situation for becoming part of a war zone,” Moldova’s foreign minister, Nicu Popescu, told reporters in Washington in April. “Having said that, we cannot predict how things will evolve. We cannot speculate and we have been preparing from November and we continue to be very alert to the full spectrum of threats.” Chico Harlan contributed to this report.

What is Transnistria, and will Russia destabilize Moldova?

Q: What is Transnistria?

The small Eastern European country of Moldova, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, used to be part of Romania. It was integrated into the Soviet Union in 1940. The collapse of the Soviet Union five decades later triggered a civil conflict in the early 1990s between the newly independent Republic of Moldova and separatists in Transnistria, who wanted to maintain Soviet ties. Transnistria, a thin strip of land that runs along Moldova’s border with Ukraine, has a population of about 500,000. No country — not even Russia — recognizes the territory as independent. But it functions as a separate nation, where Moldovan authorities admit they have no control. Russian troops have been stationed in the area for decades as “peacekeepers,” with an estimated 1,500 there today. Moldovans make fun of the sliver of land as a backwater stuck in the Soviet era, where Lenin statues remain, international bank cards don’t work and a monopolistic company, Sheriff, controls virtually everything. The nonprofit Freedom House rates Transnistria as “not free,” citing increasingly restricted political competition, the political dominance of powerful local business interests and crackdowns on dissent.

By Claire Parker

and

Sammy Westfall

Updated February 14, 2023 at 2:06 p.m. EST|Published April 22, 2022 at 12:52 p.m. EDT

Reminders of the conflict in the early 1990s remain in the city of Bender, Transnistria, including this building marked by artillery fire. (Gianmarco Maraviglia for The Washington Post)

Russia has been plotting to overthrow Moldova’s pro-Western government in a bid to put it at the Kremlin’s disposal and prevent its integration into the European Union, the country’s president said Monday. Maia Sandu said the alleged plot was confirmed by Moldovan intelligence officials after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed his government had intercepted documents outlining the plan.

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Russia planned coup in pro-West Moldova, president says

Russia denied the accusations. “These are baseless and unsubstantiated claims,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in an emailed statement.

But Sandu’s announcement has renewed concerns over Moscow’s attempts to pressure Moldova, a former Soviet republic that borders Ukraine. The campaign has escalated over the past year and The Washington Post reported in October how Russia’s Federal Security Service funneled tens of millions of dollars into Moldova to create a network of influential pro-Russian politicians there.

Russia also occupies the breakaway state of Transnistria in Moldova’s east. And early in the war with Ukraine, a Russian military commander suggested that Moscow aims to establish a corridor through southern Ukraine to Transnistria.

Sandu said Monday that Russia hoped to capitalize on public discontent over the fallout from the war, including widespread power outages and soaring inflation, to install a new government. Transnistria is also home to the power plant that supplies the vast majority of Moldova’s electricity supply.

BELARUS

Voronezh

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Russian-held

areas

Belgorod

Sumy

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Poltava

Transnistria

LUHANSK

Self-proclaimed

republic since

1991

UKRAINE

Luhansk

Dnipro

Uman

Donetsk

DONETSK

Zaporizhzhia

Rostov-

on-Don

Mariupol

Mykolaiv

Chisinau

Melitopol

Area held by

Russia-backed

separatists

since 2014

Odessa

Tiraspol

Kherson

Crimea

RUSSIA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black

Sea

ROMANIA

100 MILES

BULGARIA

Source: Feb. 10 control data via Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIA

BELARUS

100 MILES

Area held by

Russia-backed

separatists

since 2014

Chernihiv

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Uman

Dnipro

Mariupol

MOL.

Russian-held

areas

Odessa

Chisinau

RUSSIA

Crimea

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

ROM.

Transnistria

Self-proclaimed

republic since

1991

BULG.

Source: Feb. 10 control data via Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIA

BELARUS

Area held by

Russia-backed

separatists

since 2014

100 MILES

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Dnipro

MOL.

Mariupol

Odessa

Russian-held

areas

Chisinau

RUS.

ROM.

Transnistria

Crimea

Self-proclaimed

republic since

1991

Annexed

by Russia

in 2014

BULG.

Source: Feb. 14 control data via Institute for the Study of War

Here’s what to know about Moldova, Transnistria and Russia’s apparent meddling in the region.