Brazilians will head to the polls again on Oct. 30. Pre-election surveys going into Sunday’s vote showed Lula with double-digit leads over Bolsonaro, putting him within striking distance of the majority he needed to win outright in the first round. But the former union leader fell short, getting 48.4 percent of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 43.2 percent, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Other key races, including the governorship of São Paulo, Brazil’s wealthiest and most populous state, also will be decided in runoffs on Oct. 30. (In the first round, Bolsonaro’s candidate, Infrastructure Minister Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, got 42.3 percent of the vote; Fernando Haddad, from Lula’s Workers’ Party, got 35.7 percent.) Bolsonaro gained strength in Congress, and his party now has the most seats in both chambers.

What happened in the first round?

Bolsonaro, criticized across the political spectrum for a chaotic response to the coronavirus , which has killed more than 686,000 people in Brazil, surpassed expectations. Polls released by Ipec and Datafolha on Saturday suggested Lula would win 50 percent or more of the vote. “The polls systematically underrated the strength of Bolsonaro and his supporters,” said Maurício Santoro, a professor of international relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro has told his supporters for years that they can’t trust the polls. “After [Sunday], these feelings are going to be reinforced,” Santoro said. Brian Winter, editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, said pollsters have struggled to capture the conservative vote in the United States and other countries beyond Brazil. “You have right-wing voters who think that the system is stacked against them and do not want to or are afraid to reveal the truth about who they really plan to vote for,” he said. “And I strongly suspect that was part of the story in Brazil.”

Who’s going to win the second round?

The election is now a toss-up, and all eyes are on first-round center-right candidate Simone Tebet and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes. They got 4.2 percent and 3.0 percent of the vote, respectively.

Whom will they endorse?

It is unclear whom Tebet and Gomes will back. Tebet said “her decision was already made,” O Globo reported, but she planned to meet with party leaders before she announced it. Gomes also wants to speak to members of his party before announcing his candidate in the runoff. “I am deeply concerned about what I am seeing happening in Brazil,” he said . “I have never seen a situation so complex, so challenging, so potentially threatening to our fate as a nation.” Santoro said he believes Tebet and Gomes have more in common with Lula than Bolsonaro, especially in their commitment to democracy, human rights and rule of law. “But that doesn’t mean that they are going to support Lula,” he said. The political cost, especially for Tebet, might be too high. It’s also unclear whether their supporters will heed their endorsements.

The election has made plain Brazil’s deep polarization. Tensions will be higher the second time around, as will the risk of political violence, Santoro said. Supporters of both Lula and Bolsonaro see the vote as an existential choice: Does Brazil want to be a democracy or an authoritarian state? The candidates will be fighting over swing voters, particularly in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Winter said. Sunday’s results quashed hopes on the left that Bolsonaro’s ascent to power in 2018 was a fluke . As he defied projections in the presidential contest, allies made strong showings in races for state governorships and Congress. He has built a movement that could have a lasting impact on Brazilian politics. Lula supporters were hoping not only for a first-round victory but also a repudiation of Bolsonarismo. It didn’t happen. “This idea that was still circulating in some circles that Bolsonaro was some kind of historical aberration, I think that idea is dead,” Winter said. “There’s a real conservative movement in Brazil, and Jair Bolsonaro is its leader and will be for quite some time, even if he loses the runoff on Oct. 30.” Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said the choice between the candidates is stark, particularly in public education and public health, the fight against deforestation, the return of religion in policymaking and a permanent far-right influence that he called “a threat to democracy.” “This is a new reality in Brazil,” Stuenkel said.

Americas

What you need to know about Brazil’s runoff election

By Maite Fernández Simon

October 4, 2022 at 2:31 p.m. EDT

A supporter of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reacts as she watches the vote count in the first round of the presidential election Sunday in Rio de Janeiro. (Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images)

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro outperformed the polls on Sunday, capturing more than 43 percent of the vote and denying former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a first-round victory in the presidential election.

The two heavyweights — Bolsonaro, a right-wing politician, and Lula, a leftist — emerged from the first-round field of 11 to face off in a second and final round this month. Analysts say it’s the most consequential election in Latin America’s largest country since it threw off the military dictatorship 37 years ago.

Bolsonaro and Lula are heading to second round in Brazil election

Here’s what you need to know.