Musharraf May Impose Emergency Rule

KABUL, Aug. 8 -- Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, may decide to impose emergency rule because of deteriorating security conditions and the growing threat of violence by Islamic extremists, a senior government official in Islamabad said Wednesday.

Musharraf, meanwhile, abruptly canceled a long-planned visit to the Afghan capital, where he and Afghan President Hamid Karzai were to launch a four-day peace conference aimed at improving bilateral cooperation in the fight against Islamic extremism.

Officials in Islamabad said at first that Musharraf could not attend because of other "engagements" at home. But rumors grew that the president had met with senior advisers to discuss the pros and cons of imposing a state of emergency. Late Wednesday, Tariq Azim, minister of state for information, told Pakistan's GEO television that the idea remained a possibility.

"Given the external and internal threats we are facing, especially on the border areas, the possibility of emergency cannot be ruled out," Azim said. Rashid Qureshi, a spokesman for Musharraf, denied reports that the president planned to suspend citizens' rights.

Under the country's constitution, the president may impose emergency rule if Pakistan faces a severe internal or external threat. Such a decree could restrict freedom of speech and movement. Elections, now scheduled by year's end, could be postponed or suspended.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke with Musharraf in a call early Thursday Pakistan time, a senior State Department official said, according to the Associated Press. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not detail the 17-minute conversation.

Some Pakistani critics and foreign analysts suggested Wednesday that Musharraf was considering the move in a desperate bid to cling to power amid separate challenges from the country's secular pro-democracy movement and from radical Islamic groups.

Musharraf took power in a bloodless coup in October 1999 and has since been a key ally in the U.S. fight against terrorism. Analysts say he has ruled with a relatively light hand, seeking to co-opt both political and religious groups while bending the laws to his political aims. He has hoped to be reelected by Parliament to another five-year term without having to give up his position as army chief.

But in the past several months, Musharraf's popularity has declined, as the pro-democracy movement has gained speed. At the same time, radical Islamic organizations have turned violently against his government. Radical students seeking to impose Islamic law on the country seized a mosque complex in Islamabad last month. Security forces crushed the rebellion, but a spate of retaliatory bombings and other attacks has left more than 300 people dead.

In Washington, the once-praised Musharraf has come under increasingly harsh criticism for failing to crack down on violent Islamic groups, many in the tribal region along the Afghan border. For the first time, U.S. officials have threatened to send troops into Pakistan to pursue insurgents, while Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) levied a similar warning.

South Asia experts said they were perplexed and concerned by Musharraf's apparent consideration of emergency rule, a device that recalls harsher periods of military control in Pakistan.

Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said such a move would seem "more like a sign of weakness than a sign of strength" for the Islamabad government. He said that there appeared to be no obvious reason for a crackdown and that the government would need to justify such a move.

In the past, Musharraf has tended to dismiss Islamic insurgency as a homegrown Afghan problem and has often criticized President Karzai for failing to halt the revival of the Taliban militia. Karzai, in turn, has accused Pakistan of fomenting the insurgency and offering a haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters.

The four-day peace parley this week, called a jirga, is an attempt to overcome some of the enmity. Afghan officials insisted Wednesday that the meeting of about 700 tribal elders and officials from the neighboring countries would not be derailed by Musharraf's absence.

Still, the event is being boycotted by elders and legislators from border areas where a government truce with pro-Taliban groups recently collapsed.

Staff writer Jason Ukman in Washington contributed to this report.