Huckabee Fails to Get Decisive Edge Among Evangelicals

COLUMBIA, S.C., Jan. 19 -- Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's support in South Carolina came from the same Christian evangelicals that powered his victory a little more than two weeks ago in Iowa -- only this time he didn't get enough of their votes to win.

When he carried Iowa, where 60 percent of Republican voters were Christian evangelicals, Huckabee dominated the group, winning by 2 to 1. But in South Carolina, where a nearly identical number of voters were evangelicals, Huckabee bested Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) by 40 percent to 27 percent, according to preliminary network exit polls.

Huckabee's inability to extend his popularity among evangelicals and broaden his base beyond them -- he trailed well behind McCain, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) among nonevangelicals here -- proved decisive in a contest that could have swung the other way with a change of a few thousand votes. Huckabee must now face his better-known and better-funded opponents in a host of states where evangelicals don't figure as prominently.

"Huckabee was not a lock for evangelicals here because there are so many evangelicals here," said Oran Smith, a conservative activist who runs the Palmetto Family Council and remained neutral in the race. "The more members of a group, the more diverse. Some voted for McCain because he was a straight shooter, others liked experience and electability . . . just like everyone else."

After winning in Iowa, Huckabee and his aides had to decide whether to compete everywhere to try to broaden their base or whether to be tactical, like many of his rivals, and focus on states where they expected to do well. His campaign chose to do a little of both without fully achieving either, despite a rise in national polls.

Following Iowa, most of Huckabee's shoestring staff went straight to South Carolina, but, for the most part, Huckabee didn't join them. Instead, he went to New Hampshire, where the little-known candidate enjoyed a rush of national media exposure, campaigning across the state with his bass guitar in hand and actor Chuck Norris at his side. He finished third.

Aides at first wrote off the next contest on the calendar, in Michigan on Jan. 15, reasoning it would cost too much to run ads there and that there was little chance of winning in a state where Romney grew up and McCain won in 2000.

But campaign chairman Ed Rollins argued that Huckabee could finish ahead of Romney in Michigan and effectively knock him out of the race. He and other aides also thought there was power in competing everywhere, both in establishing Huckabee as a front-runner and in raising much-needed money. So Huckabee spent days darting between South Carolina and Michigan, where he spent all of Monday even after polls indicated that he had little chance of finishing ahead of Romney or McCain.

He also spent time fundraising, trying to raise $10 million by Feb. 5, more than the campaign totaled in all of 2007. So far, the campaign has raised $2 million.

"You can always second-guess yourself; you make the best judgments you can," Rollins said before the results were announced. "We think we continued our national media exposure."

His South Carolina backers were not pleased. "I would rather have had him in South Carolina," said David Beasley, the former governor of South Carolina who was one of Huckabee's big boosters here. "My argument is, here I'm less concerned with national media than with local media."

Huckabee arrived here on Tuesday and campaigned almost nonstop, flying across the state on a 12-event, multi-city tour Thursday and Friday.