Hearts, Not Minds

But if Hart is right that these signs were discouraging for McCain, the York focus group also showed how fluid the presidential race remains, and "just how far from the finish line we are," in Hart's words. The discussion, which lasted nearly 140 minutes, demonstrated again and again how little the paricipants felt they knew about Obama or McCain. "I don't know enough" was the substance of many answers to Hart's queries.

In an effort to plumb their emotional reactions to both men, Hart fired a series of off-the-wall questions at the group: Imagine you are lost in a forest. Would you want Obama or McCain to help get you out? What kind of neighbor would McCain or Obama be? With which man would you choose to share an hour-long commute to work? Whom would you select to carry the American flag for the U.S. athletes marching in the opening ceremony of the Olympics?

Obama had fewer supporters than McCain on all of these questions, though only four of 12 said they leaned toward voting for McCain. This, said Hart, was evidence of the work Obama has to do to reassure voters that it would be safe and ultimately rewarding to vote for him. McCain is the relatively well-known quantity in the race, Obama still the newcomer. But Hart also noted how hard it was for members of the group to identify ways that McCain could win their votes in November.

Only one member of the group had an outspoken answer to that question. Charles Fasano, a 56-year-old undertaker, identified himself as "a Democrat . . . thinking more about McCain, just because I don't trust Osama -- I mean Obama. It's only one letter difference. His middle name's Hussein. He comes from a Muslim family. It's not right, I can't see it. I just fear for America if he comes in." Later in the discussion Fasano predicted race riots in America if Obama is elected. These were classic examples of sentiments that no poll would ever uncover, but came bubbling up freely in this focus group.

No one agreed with Fasano, nor did anyone point out that Obama barely knew his Muslim father or that side of his family. But several said they feared for Obama's safety. "The real world doesn't do well with change," said Terry Mathison, 49, an independent who voted Republican in 2004. "I think somebody would be out for him. I would fear for his life."

Thanks to new technology, says Vincent Breglio, a longtime Republican pollster and focus group leader, the future of this art form is bright. Breglio said he demonstrated this late last year in Iowa, in a new kind of computer-assisted and oversize focus group that he used on behalf of Mitt Romney.

Breglio assembled 25 people and put them all in front of laptop computers connected in a network. Instead of oral questions like Peter Hart's, he sent members of the group questions as e-mail, and the participants typed out their answers.

"The data was just much richer," Breglio said. "The meeker, less assertive people can participate without being identified. . . . We could ask fairly sensitive questions, like religious affiliations and beliefs and how they will influence votes, things that are very important but often difficult to tease out." And everyone in the group could answer every question, which isn't possible in the traditional focus group. The result, Breglio said, was the most productive, in-depth interviews he'd ever seen a focus group produce.