Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 27-30, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,805 registered voters, including 1,580 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The results from the full survey have margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/30/08 RV 89 59 29 11 7 4 *
10/29/08 RV 89 60 30 10 6 4 *
10/28/08 RV 90 59 31 10 6 4 *
10/27/08 RV 91 60 31 9 5 4 *
10/26/08 RV 90 60 30 9 5 4 *
10/25/08 RV 89 59 30 11 6 5 *
10/24/08 RV 89 60 28 11 6 5 *
10/23/08 RV 88 58 30 12 6 6 *
10/22/08 RV 89 57 32 11 6 5 *
10/21/08 RV 90 58 32 10 6 4 *
10/20/08 RV 90 57 34 10 6 4 *
10/19/08 RV 90 57 33 10 6 3 *
10/11/08 RV 92 59 33 8 4 4 *
9/29/08 RV 89 58 31 11 7 5 *
9/22/08 RV 91 55 36 9 5 4 0
9/7/08 RV 89 51 38 10 6 5 *
8/22/08 RV 84 42 42 16 11 5 *
7/13/08 RV 79 36 42 21 12 9 1
6/15/08 75 34 41 25 12 13 *
5/11/08 83 39 44 17 13 5 0
4/13/08 84 37 47 16 11 5 *
3/2/08 84 42 42 15 11 4 *
2/1/08 81 35 46 19 12 7 *
1/12/08 79 32 47 21 15 6 *
12/9/07 72 21 51 28 19 8 *
11/1/07 67 21 46 33 22 12 0
9/30/07 69 21 48 30 21 10 *
7/21/07 70 22 48 30 20 10 *
6/1/07 66 18 48 34 22 13 *
4/15/07 66 20 45 34 20 14 *
2/25/07 65 20 44 35 25 10 *
10/30/04 RV 90 59 31 9 6 3 1
10/30/00 LV 91 47 44 9 7 2 *
Call for full trend.
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/30/08 RV 74 6 4 1 * 15 *
10/29/08 RV 76 5 4 1 1 13 1
10/28/08 RV 77 6 4 1 1 11 1
10/27/08 RV 76 6 4 1 1 11 1
10/26/08 RV 78 6 4 1 1 10 *
10/25/08 RV 78 5 5 2 1 10 *
10/24/08 RV 79 5 5 2 1 8 *
10/23/08 RV 80 5 5 2 1 6 *
10/22/08 RV 81 5 5 2 1 5 *
10/21/08 RV 82 6 5 2 1 4 *
10/20/08 RV 81 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/19/08 RV 83 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/11/08 RV 87 5 4 1 * 2 0
9/29/08 RV 87 6 5 1 1 *
9/22/08 RV 89 6 4 1 * *
9/7/08 RV 85 7 5 1 1 *
8/22/08 RV 84 10 4 2 * *
7/13/08 RV 79 10 7 3 2 0
6/15/08 71 9 8 7 4 *
3/2/08 78 9 7 4 2 *
3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, did you vote for (Barack Obama and Joe Biden) or for (John McCain and Sarah Palin)?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/30/08 53 44 1 1 2
10/29/08 52 44 1 1 2
10/28/08 52 44 1 1 3
10/27/08 52 45 1 1 2
10/26/08 52 45 * 1 2
10/25/08 52 45 * 1 2
10/24/08 53 44 1 1 2
10/23/08 53 44 * 1 2
10/22/08 54 43 1 1 2
10/21/08 54 43 1 1 1
10/20/08 53 44 1 1 1
10/19/08 53 44 1 1 2
10/11/08 53 43 1 1 2
9/29/08 50 46 * 2 2
9/22/08 52 43 * 1 3
9/7/08 47 49 1 1 3
8/22/08 49 45 * 2 4
7/13/08 49 46 1 2 2
6/15/08 47 48 1 2 2
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other Neither Would not No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/30/08 53 42 1 2 * 3
10/29/08 51 42 1 2 1 3
10/28/08 51 42 1 2 1 3
10/27/08 51 42 1 2 1 3
10/26/08 51 43 1 1 1 3
10/25/08 51 44 * 1 * 3
10/24/08 52 42 1 2 * 3
10/23/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/22/08 54 41 1 2 1 3
10/21/08 53 41 1 1 1 3
10/20/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/19/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/11/08 54 41 1 2 * 2
9/29/08 49 45 1 2 * 3
9/22/08 52 42 1 1 * 4
9/7/08 47 46 1 1 1 4
8/22/08 49 43 * 3 2 3
7/13/08 50 42 1 3 1 2
6/15/08 49 45 1 3 1 3
5/11/08 51 44 * 2 1 1
4/13/08 49 44 * 3 3 2
3/2/08 53 40 * 2 1 3
2/1/08 47 48 1 1 1 2
1/19/07 47 45 * 3 1 4
3b. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/30/08 LV 93 7 2 4 1
10/29/08 LV 92 7 3 5 1
10/28/08 LV 91 9 3 5 *
10/27/08 LV 91 9 3 5 *
10/26/08 LV 91 9 3 6 *
10/25/08 LV 91 9 3 6 *
10/24/08 LV 91 9 4 5 1
10/23/08 LV 91 9 4 5 1
10/22/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 10 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 10 4 6 1
10/19/08 LV 88 10 5 6 1
10/11/08 LV 88 11 4 7 1
9/29/08 RV 82 17 8 9 1
9/22/08 RV 83 16 8 8 1
9/7/08 RV 79 20 8 12 1
8/22/08 RV 73 24 11 13 3
7/13/08 RV 72 25 10 15 3
6/15/08 RV 72 26 11 16 2
5/11/08 RV 69 28 15 14 3
9/26/04 RV 82 16 4 12 2
9/8/04 RV 84 14 6 8 2
8/29/04 RV 81 18 7 11 1
8/1/04 RV 80 19 7 12 1
7/25/04 RV 78 20 7 13 2
7/11/04 RV 79 21 7 13 1
6/20/04 RV 73 26 12 14 *
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/30/08 LV 94 6 1 4 1
10/29/08 LV 94 6 1 5 *
10/28/08 LV 92 7 2 5 *
10/27/08 LV 92 7 2 5 *
10/26/08 LV 92 8 3 5 *
10/25/08 LV 93 7 3 4 *
10/24/08 LV 92 7 3 4 *
10/23/08 LV 91 8 4 4 1
10/22/08 LV 90 8 3 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 9 4 6 1
10/20/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
10/19/08 LV 91 9 3 5 1
10/11/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
9/29/08 RV 83 16 7 9 1
9/22/08 RV 85 14 8 7 1
9/7/08 RV 78 21 9 12 1
8/22/08 RV 74 23 7 15 4
7/13/08 RV 72 23 9 14 5
6/15/08 RV 71 26 7 19 3
5/11/08 RV 71 25 13 13 4
John McCain:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/30/08 LV 91 8 3 5 1
10/29/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/28/08 LV 89 10 4 6 1
10/27/08 LV 90 10 4 6 *
10/26/08 LV 89 11 4 7 *
10/25/08 LV 88 11 3 8 1
10/24/08 LV 89 10 4 6 1
10/23/08 LV 90 10 4 5 1
10/22/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/19/08 LV 86 12 6 6 1
10/11/08 LV 86 14 4 9 *
9/29/08 RV 81 18 9 9 1
9/22/08 RV 81 18 9 9 2
9/7/08 RV 80 19 8 11 2
8/22/08 RV 72 25 14 11 2
7/13/08 RV 71 28 12 17 1
6/15/08 RV 72 27 14 12 1
5/11/08 RV 66 32 17 15 2
4. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?
Voted before First time No opinion 10/30/08 LV 87 12 * 10/29/08 LV 88 11 * 10/28/08 LV 88 12 * 10/27/08 LV 89 11 0 10/26/08 LV 88 12 0 10/25/08 LV 88 12 0 10/24/08 LV 88 12 0 10/23/08 LV 87 13 * 10/22/08 LV 87 13 * 10/21/08 LV 87 12 * 10/20/08 LV 88 11 * 10/19/08 LV 89 11 * 10/11/08 LV 90 10 0 9/29/08* RV 92 8 * 9/22/08 RV 92 8 0 10/31/04 RV 90 10 * *9/29/08 and previous: "(Was this/will this be) the first time you've voted in a presidential election, or have you voted in previous presidential elections?"
5. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?
Energy Health Something No
Economy Iraq Terrorism policy care else op.
10/30/08 LV 53 9 4 3 10 21 1
10/29/08 LV 53 9 3 3 9 21 1
10/28/08 LV 54 9 4 3 9 20 1
10/27/08 LV 54 8 4 4 10 19 1
10/26/08 LV 53 8 5 4 10 19 1
10/25/08 LV 52 8 6 5 11 18 1
10/24/08 LV 51 8 5 4 11 19 1
10/23/08 LV 51 8 5 4 10 21 1
10/22/08 LV 51 8 5 4 10 20 1
10/21/08 LV 51 9 5 4 10 20 1
10/20/08 LV 52 8 6 5 9 19 1
10/19/08 LV 53 7 6 4 9 19 2
6. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/30/08 - Summary Table*
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. The economy 54 41 1 3 2
b. An unexpected major 49 46 1 1 2
crisis
c. Taxes 52 41 * 4 3
*Half sample on 10/29-30 for items b-c.
Trend:
a. The economy
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/30/08 LV 54 41 1 3 2
10/29/08 LV 53 41 1 2 2
10/28/08 LV 52 42 1 3 2
10/27/08 LV 52 43 1 3 2
10/26/08 LV 52 42 1 3 3
10/25/08 LV 53 42 * 3 2
10/24/08 LV 55 40 1 2 2
10/23/08 LV 56 39 1 2 2
10/22/08 LV 56 38 1 3 2
10/21/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/20/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/19/08 LV 55 39 1 4 1
10/11/08 LV 54 37 1 6 2
9/29/08 RV 50 43 1 3 2
9/22/08 RV 53 39 1 4 3
9/7/08 RV 47 42 1 4 6
8/22/08 RV 50 39 2 5 4
7/13/08 RV 54 37 2 6 3
6/15/08 RV 52 37 2 5 4
5/11/08 RV 48 38 2 8 4
3/2/08 RV 50 37 2 6 5
Compare to:
Both Neither No
Kerry Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/30/04 LV 48 45 1 3 3
Both Neither No
Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/25/00 LV 48 45 2 3 3
Both Neither No
Clinton Dole (vol.) (vol.) opinion
9/4/96 RV 48 42 2 6 3
All None No
Clinton Bush Perot (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/4/92 LV 43 26 20 1 5 5
Both Neither No
Dukakis Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
11/1/88 LV 40 51 NA NA 9
b. An unexpected major crisis
10/30/08 LV 49 46 1 1 2
10/29/08 LV 48 47 2 1 2
10/28/08 LV 47 48 1 2 3
10/27/08 LV 46 48 2 2 3
10/19/08 LV 49 45 1 2 2
10/11/08 LV 52 43 1 3 1
9/29/08 RV 44 50 1 2 3
9/22/08 RV 46 47 2 2 3
9/7/08 RV 37 54 2 3 3
8/22/08 RV 41 52 2 2 3
7/13/08 RV 42 51 3 2 3
Compare to:
Both Neither No
Kerry Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
6/20/04 41 53 1 2 2
*"Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry): He can be trusted in a crisis."
c. Taxes
10/30/08 LV 52 41 * 4 3
10/29/08 LV 51 41 1 4 3
10/28/08 LV 52 41 1 4 2
10/27/08 LV 51 41 1 4 3
10/21/08 LV 51 43 1 3 2
10/20/08 LV 50 43 1 4 2
10/19/08 LV 52 42 1 4 2
10/11/08 LV 52 42 1 5 1
9/29/08 RV 48 46 * 3 3
9/7/08 RV 45 44 * 4 7
8/22/08 RV 44 45 1 5 5
6/15/08 RV 47 42 1 6 5
Compare to:
Both Neither No
Kerry Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/17/04 LV 42 50 1 4 4
Both Neither No
Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/00 LV 37 50 2 9 4
Both Neither No
Clinton Dole (vol.) (vol.) opinion
9/4/96 RV 35 48 3 10 4
All None No
Clinton Bush Perot (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/4/92 LV 41 30 15 1 6 7
Both Neither No
Dukakis Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
9/19/88 LV 30 57 2 5 7
7. (ASKED OF LIKELY LEANED OBAMA/MCCAIN SUPPORTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about [NAME] - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/30/08 - Summary Table - Among Likely Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Obama 96 68 28 4 3 1 *
b. McCain 87 39 47 13 9 4 1
Trend:
a. Obama
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
10/30/08 LV 96 68 28 4 3 1 *
10/29/08 LV 96 68 28 3 2 1 1
10/28/08 LV 96 65 31 3 2 1 1
10/27/08 LV 96 65 31 3 3 1 1
10/26/08 LV 96 66 30 3 2 1 1
10/25/08 LV 97 68 29 3 3 1 *
10/24/08 LV 97 71 26 3 3 1 0
10/23/08 LV 95 70 25 5 4 1 0
10/22/08 LV 94 67 28 5 5 1 *
10/21/08 LV 95 64 31 5 4 1 *
10/20/08 LV 95 65 31 5 4 1 *
10/19/08 LV 96 64 32 4 3 1 *
10/11/08 LV 96 66 30 4 3 1 *
9/29/08 RV 95 61 34 4 4 * 1
9/22/08 RV 94 62 32 6 4 1 *
9/7/08 RV 96 64 32 4 3 1 0
8/22/08 RV 95 52 43 5 2 3 *
6/15/08 RV 91 52 39 9 7 2 *
b. McCain
10/30/08 LV 87 39 47 13 9 4 1
10/29/08 LV 86 39 47 13 10 3 1
10/28/08 LV 85 37 48 15 12 3 1
10/27/08 LV 83 35 49 16 13 3 *
10/26/08 LV 87 36 51 13 11 2 *
10/25/08 LV 86 38 48 14 11 3 *
10/24/08 LV 88 39 49 11 9 2 1
10/23/08 LV 89 39 50 10 8 2 1
10/22/08 LV 88 40 48 12 10 2 1
10/21/08 LV 88 37 51 11 10 1 *
10/20/08 LV 88 38 50 12 11 2 *
10/19/08 LV 87 40 47 13 11 2 *
10/11/08 LV 87 31 57 13 10 2 0
9/29/08 RV 90 38 52 10 7 2 *
9/22/08 RV 89 34 55 10 8 2 1
9/7/08 RV 92 46 46 8 6 2 0
8/22/08 RV 86 28 58 13 11 2 1
6/15/08 RV 74 19 55 25 19 6 1
Compare to:
10/26/04 - Summary Table - Among Likely Voters, Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Bush 91 55 36 9 8 1 *
b. Kerry 92 46 47 7 6 1 1
8. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS; 10/29-30 ONLY) What do you think is the bigger risk - that (Obama will put in place too many government regulations), or that (McCain will not put enough government regulations in place)?
Obama, too many McCain, not enough Both Neither No
regulations regulations (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/30/08 LV 40 45 2 5 8
10/11/08 LV 38 48 3 4 7
9. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS; 10/29-30 ONLY) In terms of criticizing Obama, do you think McCain has gone too far, not gone far enough, or handled it about right?
1 Too far Not far enough About right No opinion 10/30/08 LV 50 16 32 2
10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS; 10/29-30 ONLY) In terms of criticizing McCain, do you think Obama has gone too far, not gone far enough, or handled it about right?
Too far Not far enough About right No opinion
10/30/08 LV 24 7 67 2
11. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think of [NAME] as a very safe choice for president, somewhat safe, somewhat risky, or very risky?
------- Safe ------ ------ Risky ------ No
NET Very Smewht NET Smewht Very opinion
a. Obama 54 32 23 45 17 28 1
b. McCain 51 25 27 48 24 24 1
Trend:
a. Obama
------- Safe ------ ------ Risky ------ No
NET Very Smewht NET Smewht Very opinion
10/30/08 LV 54 32 23 45 17 28 1
10/29/08 LV 54 31 23 45 16 29 1
10/28/08 LV 54 31 23 45 16 29 1
10/11/08 LV 56 31 25 43 21 23 *
9/29/08 RV 55 27 28 44 23 21 1
6/15/08 RV 50 18 33 48 29 19 2
b. McCain
10/30/08 LV 51 25 27 48 24 24 1
10/29/08 LV 52 26 26 47 23 24 1
10/28/08 LV 53 27 26 46 23 23 1
10/11/08 LV 49 20 30 50 24 27 *
9/29/08 RV 51 23 28 48 28 20 *
6/15/08 RV 57 16 40 41 25 16 2
Compare to:
------- Safe ------ ------ Risky ------ No
NET Very Smewht NET Smewht Very opinion
Gore:
7/23/00 57 18 39 40 24 15 3
2/27/00 58 24 33 40 21 20 2
9/2/99 53 17 36 44 26 19 3
Bush:
7/23/00 59 20 39 38 24 13 3
2/27/00 61 22 39 37 17 20 2
9/2/99 66 22 44 31 23 8 3
12. 901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
---Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean
10/30/08 LV 37 28 31 3 1 13 13 8
10/29/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 13 11
10 10/28/08 LV 37 31 29 2 1 14 10
8 10/27/08 LV 36 33 28 3 1 13 10
8 10/26/08 LV 37 32 27 3 1 13 10 7
10/25/08 LV 37 30 29 3 * 13 13 6
10/24/08 LV 37 29 30 3 * 13 13 7
10/23/08 LV 37 29 31 3 * 14 12 8
10/22/08 LV 36 27 33 3 1 15 13 9
10/21/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12 8
10/20/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12 8
10/19/08 LV 35 28 33 3 1 15 13 9
10/11/08 LV 39 30 27 3 1 12 12 7
908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
10/30/08 LV 22 45 31 1 1
10/29/08 LV 22 42 33 2 1
10/28/08 LV 22 41 34 2 1
10/27/08 LV 21 40 35 2 1
10/26/08 LV 22 38 37 2 1
10/25/08 LV 23 37 36 2 1
10/24/08 LV 22 38 35 2 2
10/23/08 LV 21 40 35 2 2
10/22/08 LV 21 42 34 2 2
10/21/08 LV 20 43 34 2 2
10/20/08 LV 21 41 35 1 1
10/19/08 LV 21 41 35 2 2
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