Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 28-31, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,773 adults and 1,293 likely voters, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results have a three point error margin for likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
RV = registered voters; LV=likely voters
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt NET Not so At all opinion
10/31/12 LV 99 67 32 1 1 * 0
10/30/12 LV 99 66 33 1 1 * 0
10/29/12 LV 99 69 30 1 1 * 0
10/28/12 LV 99 69 30 1 1 * *
10/27/12 LV 99 68 31 1 1 * *
10/26/12 LV 99 66 33 1 1 * 0
10/25/12 LV 95 62 33 5 3 2 *
10/24/12 LV 94 63 32 5 3 2 *
10/23/12 LV 93 63 31 6 4 2 *
10/22/12 LV 92 64 28 8 5 3 *
10/21/12 LV 92 64 28 8 5 3 *
10/13/12 LV 93 60 33 6 4 2 *
9/29/12 LV 92 54 38 8 6 2 0
9/9/12 LV 87 51 36 13 8 5 1
5/20/12 RV 82 38 44 18 9 8 *
2/4/12* RV 79 37 43 20 12 8 *
1/15/12 RV 76 33 43 24 14 10 *
*2/4/12 and previous not “too” closely
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/31/12 RV 73 6 3 2 1 16 0
10/30/12 RV 75 6 3 2 1 13 *
10/29/12 RV 76 5 4 2 * 12 *
10/28/12 RV 77 5 4 2 1 11 *
10/27/12 RV 79 5 5 2 * 9 *
10/26/12 RV 79 6 5 2 * 8 *
10/25/12 RV 79 6 6 2 1 6 *
10/24/12 RV 79 7 6 2 1 6 *
10/23/12 RV 80 6 6 2 1 5 *
10/22/12 RV 82 5 6 2 1 4 *
10/21/12 RV 84 6 4 2 * 4 *
10/13/12 RV 85 7 4 1 1 1 1
9/29/12 RV 84 7 7 2 * 0 *
9/9/12 RV 83 7 6 4 * NA 0
8/25/12 RV 81 8 6 3 1 *
7/8/12 RV 81 9 8 2 * " *
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend
3. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you'll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?
Vote Early voting/ Already
in person mail-in ballot voted (vol.) No opinion
10/31/12 LV 60 19 21 *
10/30/12 LV 60 22 18 1
10/29/12 LV 61 21 17 1
10/28/12 LV 60 22 15 2
10/27/12 LV 62 24 12 2
10/26/12 LV 62 25 11 2
10/25/12 RV 61 29 8 1
10/24/12 RV 62 29 8 1
10/23/12 RV 62 28 7 2
10/22/12 RV 64 27 6 2
10/21/12 RV 66 27 5 2
10/13/12 RV 67 30 2 1
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend
4. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Which candidates are you leaning toward, (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) or (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE - among likely voters
Other Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/31/12 LV 49 48 1 1 1
10/30/12 LV 49 49 1 * 1
10/29/12 LV 48 49 1 * 1
10/28/12 LV 49 49 1 1 1
10/27/12 LV 48 49 1 1 1
10/26/12 LV 48 49 1 1 1
10/25/12 LV 48 49 1 1 1
10/24/12 LV 47 50 1 1 1
10/23/12 LV 48 49 * 1 1
10/22/12 LV 48 49 * 2 1
10/21/12 LV 49 48 * 2 1
10/13/12 LV 49 46 1 1 2
9/29/12 LV 49 47 * 2 1
9/9/12 LV 49 48 * 1 2
8/25/12 LV 47 49 1 1 1
7/8/12* LV 50 47 * 2 2
*7/18/12: "Barack Obama, the Democrat" and "Mitt Romney, the Republican"
5. (IF SUPPORT/VOTED OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
---- Enthusiastic --- --- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Somewhat NET Not so Not at all opinion
Obama:
10/31/12 LV 95 64 31 4 3 1 *
10/30/12 LV 96 64 32 3 2 1 *
10/29/12 LV 97 65 32 3 2 1 *
10/28/12 LV 95 66 30 4 2 1 1
10/27/12 LV 95 64 31 4 3 1 1
10/26/12 LV 94 61 33 4 3 1 1
10/25/12 LV 94 59 35 5 3 2 1
10/24/12 LV 96 60 35 4 3 1 *
10/23/12 LV 95 60 35 4 3 1 *
10/22/12 LV 96 62 34 4 3 1 *
10/21/12 LV 96 64 32 4 3 1 *
10/13/12 LV 95 60 35 4 4 1 *
10/13/12 RV 94 55 40 5 4 1 1
9/29/12 RV 91 51 40 9 7 2 0
9/9/12 RV 93 56 38 7 3 3 0
8/25/12 RV 88 48 39 11 7 4 1
7/8/12 RV 91 51 40 8 5 3 1
5/20/12 RV 93 51 41 7 4 4 0
Romney:
10/31/12 LV 94 62 32 5 3 2 1
10/30/12 LV 95 61 35 4 3 1 *
10/29/12 LV 95 61 34 4 3 2 *
10/28/12 LV 94 61 33 5 4 1 *
10/27/12 LV 95 59 36 5 3 2 *
10/26/12 LV 93 59 35 6 5 2 *
10/25/12 LV 93 58 35 7 5 2 1
10/24/12 LV 93 60 33 7 5 2 1
10/23/12 LV 93 62 31 6 5 1 1
10/22/12 LV 93 62 32 6 4 2 1
10/21/12 LV 93 58 35 6 5 1 1
10/13/12 LV 93 62 31 7 4 2 1
10/13/12 RV 92 59 33 8 5 2 1
9/29/12 RV 87 48 39 13 6 7 *
9/9/12 RV 87 46 40 13 7 6 1
8/25/12 RV 83 42 41 17 12 4 *
7/8/12 RV 85 38 47 15 11 4 *
5/20/12 RV 75 26 48 25 15 9 1
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend
5a. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2012 election, or is this the first year you’ll be voting for president?
Voted before First time
10/31/12 LV 93 7
10/30/12 LV 94 6
10/29/12 LV 96 4
10/28/12 LV 96 4
10/27/12 LV 93 7
10/26/12 LV 92 8
Call for full trend.
6. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/31/12 LV 50 32 18 49 10 39 1
10/30/12 LV 50 30 20 49 10 39 1
10/29/12 LV 50 30 20 49 10 39 1
10/28/12 LV 51 31 20 47 9 39 1
10/27/12 LV 50 30 20 48 8 40 2
10/26/12 LV 50 30 19 48 8 41 2
10/25/12 LV 49 30 19 49 8 41 2
10/24/12 LV 49 30 18 50 9 41 1
10/24/12 RV 50 29 21 48 10 38 3
10/23/12 LV 50 30 19 49 9 40 2
10/23/12 RV 50 29 21 47 9 37 3
10/22/12 LV 49 31 18 49 9 40 2
10/22/12 RV 50 30 20 47 10 38 3
10/21/12 LV 50 31 19 48 8 40 2
10/21/12 RV 51 31 20 47 10 37 2
10/13/12 LV 50 32 18 48 9 40 2
10/13/12 RV 51 30 21 47 10 37 2
10/13/12 50 30 21 44 10 34 6
9/29/12 RV 49 25 24 49 12 37 2
9/29/12 50 26 24 46 12 34 4
9/9/12 RV 48 27 21 50 10 39 2
9/9/12 49 29 20 45 11 35 6
8/25/12 RV 47 26 21 50 13 37 3
8/25/12 50 27 23 46 13 33 4
7/8/12 47 24 24 49 15 34 4
5/20/12 47 26 21 49 13 36 3
4/8/12 50 30 20 45 10 35 6
3/10/12 46 28 18 50 11 39 4
2/4/12 50 29 22 46 11 36 3
1/15/12 48 25 23 48 11 37 4
12/18/11 49 25 24 47 13 34 4
11/3/11 44 22 22 53 15 37 3
10/2/11 42 21 21 54 14 40 4
9/1/11 43 21 22 53 16 38 3
8/9/11* 44 18 26 46 9 37 10
7/17/11 47 25 22 48 14 35 5
6/5/11 47 27 20 49 13 37 4
5/2/11** 56 29 27 38 14 24 6
4/17/11 47 27 21 50 12 37 3
3/13/11 51 27 24 45 12 33 4
1/16/11 54 30 23 43 15 28 3
12/12/10 49 24 25 47 15 32 4
10/28/10 50 27 23 45 11 34 5
10/3/10 50 26 24 47 13 34 3
9/2/10 46 24 22 52 14 38 3
7/11/10 50 28 22 47 12 35 3
6/6/10 52 30 22 45 12 33 4
4/25/10 54 31 23 44 11 33 3
3/26/10 53 34 20 43 8 35 3
2/8/10 51 29 22 46 12 33 3
1/15/10 53 30 24 44 13 32 2
12/13/09 50 31 18 46 13 33 4
11/15/09 56 32 23 42 13 29 2
10/18/09 57 33 23 40 11 29 3
9/12/09 54 35 19 43 12 31 3
8/17/09 57 35 21 40 11 29 3
7/18/09 59 38 22 37 9 28 4
6/21/09 65 36 29 31 10 22 4
4/24/09 69 42 27 26 8 18 4
3/29/09 66 40 26 29 9 20 5
2/22/09 68 43 25 25 8 17 7
*Washington Post
**Washington Post/Pew Research Center
7. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy - (Obama) or (Romney)?
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/31/12 LV 47 49 * 3 2
10/30/12 LV 47 49 1 2 2
10/29/12 LV 46 49 1 2 2
10/28/12 LV 47 49 1 2 2
10/27/12 LV 45 50 1 3 2
10/26/12 LV 44 51 1 3 2
10/25/12 LV 44 51 1 3 1
10/24/12 LV 43 52 1 3 2
10/23/12 LV 44 50 1 3 2
10/22/12 LV 45 50 1 2 2
10/21/12 LV 46 48 1 3 2
10/13/12 LV 48 47 * 2 3
9/29/12 RV 47 47 * 4 2
9/9/12 RV 47 45 * 3 4
8/25/12 RV 43 50 * 4 3
7/8/12 RV 45 48 1 3 3
5/20/12 RV 47 47 * 3 3
4/8/12 RV 44 48 1 4 3
2/4/12 RV 44 50 1 3 2
8. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) ) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having - (Obama) or (Romney)?
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/31/12 LV 50 45 1 3 1
10/30/12 LV 50 44 1 3 1
10/29/12 LV 49 45 2 3 1
10/28/12 LV 50 44 2 3 1
10/27/12 LV 49 44 2 4 1
10/26/12 LV 48 45 2 4 1
10/25/12 LV 49 47 1 3 1
10/24/12 LV 48 46 2 3 1
10/23/12 LV 50 45 2 2 1
10/22/12 LV 51 44 2 2 1
10/21/12 LV 51 44 2 3 1
10/13/12 LV 51 42 2 4 1
9/29/12 RV 52 39 2 6 1
9/9/12 RV 50 40 3 4 3
8/25/12 RV 47 40 1 9 2
7/8/12 RV 51 40 2 5 2
5/20/12 RV 48 40 2 8 2
4/8/12 RV 49 38 2 8 2
2/4/12 RV 52 37 2 7 2
9. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) How would you rate [ITEM] overall response to the Hurricane that hit the east coast this week, excellent, good, not so good or poor?
10/31/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)
------ Positive ------ ------- Negative ------- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
a. The federal
government's 78 27 51 5 4 1 16
b. Obama's 79 35 44 9 4 5 12
c. Romney's 49 13 35 24 13 11 27
Trend:
a. The federal government’s
------ Positive ------ ------- Negative ------- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
10/31/12 LV* 78 27 51 5 4 1 16
10/30/12 LV** 73 25 48 8 8 1 19
*Interviews 10/30-10/31; **Interviews 10/30
b. Obama’s
------ Positive ------ ------- Negative ------- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
10/31/12 LV* 79 35 44 9 4 5 12
10/30/12 LV** 78 35 42 8 4 4 15
*Interviews 10/30-10/31; **Interviews 10/30
c. Romney’s
------ Positive ------ ------- Negative ------- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
10/31/12 LV* 49 13 35 24 13 11 27
10/30/12 LV** 44 14 30 21 13 8 35
*Interviews 10/30-10/31; **Interviews 10/30
10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) If [ITEM], how confident are you, if at all, that the country will get back on track economically in the next year or two - very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident or not confident at all?
10/31/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)
--- Confident --- --- Not confident --- No
NET Very Smwt NET Not so At all opinion
a. Obama is re-elected 47 21 27 52 16 36 1
b. Romney is elected 54 19 34 45 19 27 1
Trend:
a. Obama is re-elected
--- Confident --- --- Not confident --- No
NET Very Smwt NET Not so At all opinion
10/31/12 LV 47 21 27 52 16 36 1
10/13/12 LV 48 19 29 51 13 38 1
10/13/12 RV 49 19 30 50 14 37 1
9/29/12 RV 47 14 34 53 18 35 *
9/9/12 RV 46 19 27 53 17 36 1
8/25/12 RV 42 14 28 58 18 40 1
b. Romney is elected
--- Confident --- --- Not confident --- No
NET Very Smwt NET Not so At all opinion
10/31/12 LV 54 19 34 45 19 27 1
10/13/12 LV 51 20 31 49 19 29 *
10/13/12 RV 49 18 31 51 21 29 1
9/29/12 RV 51 12 39 47 21 27 1
9/9/12 RV 49 14 35 50 19 31 1
8/25/12 RV 46 11 35 52 21 32 1
11. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Who do you think is more responsible for the country's current economic problems - (Barack Obama) or (George W. Bush)?
Both Neither No
Obama Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/31/12 LV* 36 51 5 6 3
8/25/12 32 54 8 5 1
8/25/12 RV 34 52 8 5 1
5/20/12 34 49 8 7 3
1/15/12 29 54 9 6 2
*Interviews 10/29-10/31
12. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
10/31/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)
Yes No No opinion
a. Obama 30 68 2
b. Romney 27 71 2
Trend:
a. Obama
Yes No No opinion
10/31/12 LV 30 68 2
10/30/12 LV 28 69 2
10/29/12 LV 28 70 2
10/28/12 LV 26 72 2
10/27/12 LV 23 75 2
10/26/12 LV 23 75 2
10/25/12 LV 22 76 2
10/13/12 LV 27 71 2
9/29/12 RV 23 76 1
8/25/12 RV 20 79 1
b. Romney
Yes No No opinion
10/31/12 LV 27 71 2
10/30/12 LV 26 71 3
10/29/12 LV 25 72 3
10/28/12 LV 24 74 2
10/27/12 LV 23 75 2
10/26/12 LV 23 75 2
10/25/12 LV 23 75 2
10/13/12 LV 22 75 3
9/29/12 RV 20 79 1
8/25/12 RV 13 86 *
13a. (IF CONTACTED BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?
Within last Within last Longer No
week month ago opinion
10/31/12 LV 66 25 7 2
10/30/12 LV 65 25 9 2
10/29/12 LV 64 24 10 2
10/28/12 LV 63 25 9 3
10/27/12 LV 62 28 8 2
10/26/12 LV 62 27 9 2
10/25/12 LV 61 29 6 4
10/13/12 LV 54 37 9 *
9/29/12 RV 53 34 10 3
12/13a NET:
---------------------- Yes ----------------------- Not No
NET Last week Last month Longer Don't know contacted op.
10/31/12 LV 30 19 7 2 1 68 2
10/30/12 LV 28 18 7 2 1 69 2
10/29/12 LV 28 18 7 3 1 70 2
10/28/12 LV 26 16 7 2 1 72 2
10/27/12 LV 23 14 6 2 1 75 2
10/26/12 LV 23 14 6 2 1 75 2
10/25/12 LV 22 13 6 1 1 76 2
10/13/12 LV 27 15 10 2 * 71 2
9/29/12 RV 23 12 8 2 NA 76 1
13b. (IF CONTACTED BY ROMNEY CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?
Within last Within last Longer No
week month ago opinion
10/31/12 LV 60 30 7 3
10/30/12 LV 64 26 6 4
10/29/12 LV 63 26 7 5
10/28/12 LV 64 26 7 4
10/27/12 LV 63 25 8 4
10/26/12 LV 58 32 8 2
10/25/12 LV 57 33 8 2
10/13/12 LV 57 35 7 1
9/29/12 RV 55 34 9 1
12/13b NET:
---------------------- Yes ----------------------- Not No
NET Last week Last month Longer Don't know contacted op.
10/31/12 LV 27 16 8 2 1 71 2
10/30/12 LV 26 17 7 2 1 71 3
10/29/12 LV 25 16 6 2 1 72 3
10/28/12 LV 24 15 6 2 1 74 2
10/27/12 LV 23 14 6 2 1 75 2
10/26/12 LV 23 13 7 2 * 75 2
10/25/12 LV 23 13 8 2 * 75 2
10/13/12 LV 22 13 8 2 * 75 3
9/29/12 RV 20 11 7 2 NA 79 1
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?
Democrat Republican Independent Other (vol.) No opinion
10/31/12 LV 32 28 36 3 1
10/30/12 LV 33 28 36 3 1
10/29/12 LV 33 28 35 3 1
10/28/12 LV 35 28 34 3 1
10/27/12 LV 35 28 34 2 1
10/26/12 LV 35 29 33 2 1
10/25/12 LV 34 30 32 2 2
10/24/12 LV 34 30 31 3 2
10/23/12 LV 34 30 32 3 1
10/22/12 LV 34 29 32 3 1
10/21/12 LV 34 29 33 3 1
10/13/12 LV 35 26 33 3 2
9/29/12 LV 33 30 33 3 1
10/13/12 RV 34 25 36 3 2
9/29/12 RV 33 28 34 4 1
9/9/12 RV 32 26 37 4 1
8/25/12 RV 32 25 36 6 2
7/8/12 RV 36 27 33 3 1
5/20/12 RV 34 25 34 6 1
4/8/12 RV 37 24 33 4 1
3/10/12 RV 31 29 36 3 2
2/12/12 RV 36 25 34 5 1
1/15/12 RV 32 27 35 5 1
***END***
