2010 D.C. mayor's race poll
Key | ||
| * | -- | less than 0.5 percent |
| RV | -- | Registered voters |
| LV | -- | Likely voters (who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote) |
| All | -- | All responses |
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 19-26, 2010, among a random sample of 1,277 adult residents of the District of Columbia. Interviews were conducted on conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The poll included interviews with 780 registered Democrats and adults who said they plan to register as Democrats before the primary election. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; the error margin is four points for registered voters and five points for likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.
1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion 8/26/10 72 27 *
Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else? (A significant number of respondents said they were registered with the Statehood Green Party)
Democrat Republican Independent Statehood Green Something else No opinion 8/26/10 RV 74 7 15 * 1 3 1/28/10 RV 76 8 14 * * 1
2. (If not registered.) Do you plan to register to vote before the upcoming District primary elections on September 14, or not?
Yes No No opinion 8/26/10 23 74 3
(If respondent plans to register.) Will you register as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or what?
Democrat Republican Independent Statehood Green Something else No opinion 8/26/10 60 4 28 * * 8
3. (If respondent is a registered Democrat or plans to register as a Democrat before the Sept. 14 primary.) Generally speaking, how interested are you in the current primary campaign for mayor in D.C.: would you say you are very interested, fairly interested, not too interested or not interested at all?
------Interested----- ------Not interested------
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
8/26/10 86 55 31 14 8 6 1
7/18/06 82 50 32 17 12 5 1 (In 2006 question was phrased as "in the current campaign for mayor in D.C.")
(If respondent is a registered Democrat.) 4. How would you rate the chances that you will vote in the Democratic primary for mayor -- are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, probably will vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote in that election?
Certain to vote Likely Probably 50/50 Don't think they will vote No opinion 8/26/10 65 13 6 9 6 * 1/28/10 65 14 7 8 4 1 7/18/06 64 17 8 6 4 * 8/29/02 66 12 9 8 4 1
(If respondent says they're certain or likely to vote.) 5. Do you think you'll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), OR (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in absentee ballot)?
Election Day in-person Early/absentee No opinion 8/26/10 86 11 3
(If respondent is a registered Democrat) 6. Suppose the primary election for mayor were held today, and the candidates were (Adrian Fenty), (Vincent Gray), (Leo Alexander), (Ernest Johnson) and (Sulaimon Brown). For whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? (Significant numbers of respondents said they'd vote for a different candidate or would not vote.)
Net leaned vote:
8/26/10 RV 8/26/10 LV 1/28/10 RV
Gray 49 53 35
Fenty 36 36 31
Brown 1 2 3
Peebles NA NA 2
Alexander 1 2 2
Johnson * 0 1
Other * * 3
Would not vote 2 NA 4
No opinion 11 6 20 (If respondent named a candidate) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (If respondent said there was a chance they chould change their mind.) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Among registered Democrats, leaned Fenty/Gray supporters
-- Chance change mind --
Definitely will vote for NET Good Unlikely No opinion
Fenty 62 34 18 17 4
Gray 68 29 15 14 3 7. Thinking about his candidacy for mayor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
----Enthusiastic---- ---Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
Fenty 78 27 51 21 16 4 1
Gray 90 48 43 9 7 1 1 8. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) Thinking about the race for mayor, which is more important to you in choosing a candidate for Mayor, (their personal qualities such as leadership style) or (their positions on specific issues)? (Though not provided as an option, many respondents said both were important.)
Personal qualities Positions on issues Both No opinion 8/26/10 25 61 13 2
9. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) Please tell me how important each of the following issues are in deciding how you'll vote for mayor next month. Is the issue of (READ ITEM) extremely important in determining your vote; very important; fairly important, or not too important?
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
District public schools 89 48 41 11 7 3 1
Crime 86 41 45 14 13 1 *
The economy and jobs 85 42 43 15 13 2 *
The District budget 80 31 49 19 15 5 1
Growth and development 71 27 43 28 22 6 1
HIV and AIDS policy 70 31 39 29 20 10 1
Transportation policy 70 29 42 28 20 8 1 (If respondent named at least one issue "extremely important.") Which of these would you say is the most important issue in deciding how you'll vote for mayor? (Though not provided as an option, a significant number of respondents said all of the issues were equally important.)
8/26/10
District public schools 32
The economy and jobs 24
Crime 13
The District budget 6
Growth and development 5
Transportation policy 4
H.I.V. and AIDS policy 4
All equally important 12
No opinion 1
10. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Mayor Fenty or not:
Yes No No opinion He has brought needed change to the District 67 28 5 He understands the problems of people like you 45 45 10 He is honest and trustworthy 39 46 14 He is willing to listen to different points of view 44 47 9
Trends among registered Democrats
He has brought needed change to the District
Yes No No opinion 8/26/10 67 28 5 1/28/10 52 42 6
He understands the problems of people like you
Yes No No opinion 8/26/10 45 45 10 1/28/10 44 48 8
He is honest and trustworthy
Yes No No opinion 8/26/10 39 46 14 1/28/10 41 46 13
He is willing to listen to different points of view
Yes No No opinion 8/26/10 44 47 9 1/28/10 47 44 10
11. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Chairman Gray or not:
Yes No No opinion He understands the problems of people like you 61 16 23 He is honest and trustworthy 61 13 26 He is willing to listen to different points of view 71 9 19
12. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) Regardless of how you may vote, do you think (Fenty) or (Gray): (Though not provided as options, some respondents said "both" or "neither")
Fenty Gray Both Neither No opinion
would be a more effective leader 37 48 2 2 11
has a clearer vision for the District's future 39 42 5 4 11
has campaigned harder in your neighborhood 44 27 8 14 7 13. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, asking you for your support, or not? This includes contacts in person, by phone, or by e-mail or text message.
Yes No No opinion Fenty 50 49 1 Gray 30 69 1
(If respondent has been contacted by a campaign.) Was the contact from the (Fenty/Gray) campaign more (helpful) or more (annoying)? (Though not provided as options, some respondents said "both" or "neither")
Helpful Annoying Both Neither No opinion Fenty 34 43 2 18 4 Gray 67 16 1 14 3
(If respondent is a registered Democrat.) So far in this campaign, do you think the [CANDIDATE] campaign has been mainly (attacking the other side) or mainly (addressing the issues)?
Attacking the other side Addressing the issues No opinion The Fenty campaign 38 41 21 The Gray campaign 33 47 21
14. (If respondent is a registered voter.) What is the biggest problem facing the District today, the one you want the next mayor to work the hardest to solve?
8/26/10 RV 7/18/06 RV 5/19/02 RV 2/7/00 RV
Improving schools/education 34 24 19 19
ECONOMIC (NET) 29 5 14 14
Creating more jobs/employment opportunities 21 3 9 8
Economic development/improving quality of life 8 2 3 4
Improve tax structure * 1 2 2
Crime/violence 14 38 22 19
Housing costs/Low income housing/more or affordable housing 4 16 15 2
SERVICES (NET): 4 5 11 18
Improving city services 4 4 8 14
Improve social services NA 1 3 4
Improve city government/increase efficiency/less corrupt 2 1 3 4
Balanced budget/improve finances 2 1 1 2
Poverty/homelessness 1 2 1 3
Want D.C. to be self-governing/have representation in Congress 1 1 3 2
Traffic/parking problems 1 1 2 2
Terrorism/Homeland Security/Protecting city from attacks * 1 2 NA
Improving race relations/equal opportunities * * 2 4
Attracting/keeping residents in the city NA 0 * 1
Cooperating/working with D.C. council NA 0 * 1
Improving the image of the city nationally NA 0 * 1
Miscellaneous 4 2 2 3
Nothing NA 0 * 5
No opinion 2 3 4 3 15. Do you think things in the District of Columbia are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right direction Wrong track Neither No opinion 8/26/10 RV 59 29 8 4 8/26/10 56 29 9 6 1/28/10 52 29 11 8 1/8/08 56 31 8 5 7/18/06 42 46 7 5 5/19/02 54 33 8 5 2/7/00 69 22 6 3 8/27/98 47 46 NA 7 5/18/98 31 58 4 6 5/4/97 20 71 6 2 5/19/96 14 78 NA 2 2/29/96 16 80 NA 4 3/02/95 15 80 NA 5 12/21/93 11 83 NA 6 7/86 42 47 NA 12
16. In general, would you say the quality of life in the District of Columbia is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Better Worse About the same No opinion 8/26/10 RV 44 17 37 2 8/26/10 All 42 18 37 4 7/18/06 RV 35 27 37 1 7/18/06 All 32 28 37 2 5/19/02 RV 41 19 38 2 5/19/02 All 41 19 39 2 2/7/00 52 7 38 2 5/4/97 11 47 41 1 2/29/96 8 56 33 3 9/94 10 45 44 2 12/93 5 55 38 2 1/92 5 66 28 1 12/84 49 17 28 6
17. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Adrian Fenty is handling his job as Mayor? Is that approve/disapprove strongly or just somewhat?
--------Approve-------- -------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 RV 47 15 32 46 19 27 8
1/28/10 RV 40 13 27 53 20 33 7
1/28/10 42 13 29 49 20 29 9
1/8/08 RV 72 31 41 22 11 11 6
1/8/08 72 32 40 21 11 10 7 Compare to Anthony Williams:
--------Approve-------- -------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
7/18/06 RV 54 20 34 40 16 24 6
5/19/02 RV 64 24 40 29 11 18 7
5/19/02 All 64 22 42 28 11 17 8
2/7/00 77 36 40 17 9 7 7 Compare to Marion Barry:
--------Approve-------- -------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
5/18/98 35 16 19 52 17 34 14
5/4/97 31 13 19 63 21 41 6
5/19/96 50 25 25 47 21 26 3
2/29/96 48 19 29 45 19 26 7
3/02/95 58 28 30 27 13 14 15
5/89 28 NA NA 62 NA NA 10
8/21/87 44 NA NA 41 NA NA 15
7/86 50 NA NA 38 NA NA 12 Compare to Sharon Pratt Kelly:
--------Approve-------- -------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
12/21/93 30 7 23 67 32 35 3
2/2/92 54 20 34 42 19 23 4 18. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the D.C. Council is handling its job?
----------Approve---------- --------Disapprove--------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 RV 53 13 40 35 20 14 12
1/28/10 RV 52 12 40 37 21 16 11
1/28/10 52 12 40 35 20 15 13
1/8/08 RV 56 13 43 30 16 14 14
1/8/08 56 11 45 29 16 13 15
5/19/02 RV 57 10 47 34 23 12 9
5/19/02 56 9 46 34 23 11 10
2/7/00 RV 50 11 39 42 26 15 9
2/7/00 50 11 39 40 24 16 10
5/4/97 38 9 29 51 28 23 11
2/2/92 53 12 41 38 24 14 9
7/86 49 NA NA 25 NA NA 26 19. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Compared to four years ago, would you say [ITEM] has gotten (better), gotten (worse) or stayed about the same?
Better Worse Same No opinion The quality of life in the District 46 19 31 4 The quality of D.C. public schools 43 22 23 12 Your own family's financial situation 26 27 45 2
20. (If respondent is a registered voter.) For each of the following people, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
Vincent Gray 60 27 32 16 12 5 24
Adrian Fenty 51 17 34 42 17 24 7
Eleanor Holmes Norton 78 53 26 11 6 5 11 Trends:
Vincent Gray (January 2010 poll asked about "District Council Chairman Vincent Gray")
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 RV 60 27 32 16 12 5 24
1/28/10 RV 48 17 31 13 8 4 36
1/28/10 43 16 27 13 8 5 44
1/8/08 RV 43 NA NA 11 NA NA 46
1/8/08 39 NA NA 9 NA NA 52 Adrian Fenty
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 RV 51 17 34 42 17 24 7
7/18/06 RV 59 NA NA 16 NA NA 25 Eleanor Holmes Norton
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 RV 78 53 26 11 6 5 11
5/19/02 RV 85 NA NA 9 NA NA 6
5/19/02 80 NA NA 8 NA NA 12
2/7/00 RV 87 NA NA 8 NA NA 5
2/7/00 82 NA NA 7 NA NA 11
5/18/98 77 NA NA 7 NA NA 16
5/4/97 81 NA NA 8 NA NA 12
2/29/96 77 NA NA 8 NA NA 15
2/95 74 NA NA 8 NA NA 18
6/94 78 NA NA 8 NA NA 14
1/92 69 NA NA 12 NA NA 19 21. (If respondent is a registered voter.) How much would you say Fenty has accomplished in his term as mayor: a great deal, a good amount, not too much or nothing at all?
--------- Positive --------- ------- Negative -------
NET Great deal Good amount NET Not much Nothing No opinion
8/26/10 64 16 48 32 26 6 4 (If respondent says Fenty has accomplished not much/nothing.) Who would you say deserves most of the blame for that, (Fenty himself) or (the city council)? (Though not provided as options, significant numbers of respondents said "both" or "neither.")
Fenty himself City council Both Neither No opinion 8/26/10 72 11 15 1 2
22. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Overall, would you say Fenty cares more about serving poor and lower income people, middle income people, upper income people, or would you say he cares equally about serving all people?
8/26/10
Poor and lower income 5
Middle income 16
Upper income 44
All equally 29
No opinion 7 Compare to Sharon Pratt Kelly, among all adults:
12/21/93 2/2/92
Poor and lower income 5 3
Middle income 14 18
Upper income 33 25
All equally 38 50
None 5 NA
No opinion 5 4 23. (If respondent is a registered voter.) And would you say Fenty cares more about (black) residents of the District, (white) residents, or would you say he cares equally about serving all people?
8/26/10
Black 2
White 32
All equally 55
No opinion 11 Compare to Sharon Pratt Kelly, among all adults:
8/26/10
Black 9
White 12
All equally 74
No opinion 5 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Michelle Rhee is handling her job as Chancellor of the D.C. public schools?
-------Approve--------- -------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 44 23 22 38 13 26 17
1/28/10 43 21 22 44 15 29 13
1/8/08 59 27 32 29 14 15 12 25. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) In deciding your vote for mayor, how much of a factor will Rhee's performance as chancellor be -- extremely important in determining your vote; very important; fairly important or not too important?
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
8/26/10 55 28 26 42 19 23 3 26. (If respondent is a registered Democrat.) And would you say Rhee's performance as chancellor is more of a reason to vote (for) Fenty in the upcoming election, or more of a reason to vote (against) him? (Though not provided as an option, some voters said "neither.")
Reason for Reason against Neither No opinion
8/26/10 41 40 12 7 27. In which section of Washington, D.C. do you live: Northwest, Northeast, Southwest or Southeast?
Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast No opinion 8/26/10 50 22 5 23 1 1/28/10 51 23 2 23 1 1/8/08 52 22 4 22 * 7/18/06 50 21 4 24 *
28. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling...
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove -------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
National issues 45 13 32 50 21 29 6
Issues related to D.C. 31 8 22 59 23 35 11 29. (If respondent is a registered voter.) If control of the Congress switched from the Democrats to the Republicans after November's election, do you think that would be a good thing for the District, a bad thing for the District, or wouldn't it make any difference?
Good Bad No difference No opinion 8/26/10 10 52 35 3
(If respondent is a registered voter.) On another subject: as you may know, Washington, D.C. has a delegate in Congress, but that person is not allowed to vote on laws. Would you support or oppose new legislation giving D.C. a full voting member in the U.S. House of Representatives?
------- Support ------- ------- Oppose --------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
8/26/10 RV 89 79 10 8 4 4 3
1/28/10 RV 85 NA NA 9 NA NA 6
1/28/10 83 " " 10 " " 7 30. Do you favor or oppose the District of Columbia becoming a separate state?
Favor Oppose No opinion 8/26/10 RV 59 33 9 1/28/10 RV 57 33 10 1/28/10 56 34 10 5/19/02 66 27 7 2/7/00 58 36 6 5/18/98 52 38 10 5/4/97 46 47 7 2/29/96 48 39 13 2/95 45 48 7 12/93 51 41 8
