Washington Post Virginia Governor's Race Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 22-25, 2009, among a random sample of 1,206 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
McDonnell has double-digit lead in Va. governor's race, Post poll says (Oct. 26, 2009)
1. (IF REGISTERED VOTER) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the governor's election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Don't think Already No
to Vote vote 50/50 50/50 will vote(vol.) Voted opinion
10/25/09 LV 99 0 0 0 0 1 0
10/25/09 RV 60 16 13 6 2 1 1
10/7/09 LV 100 0 0 0 0 * 0
10/7/09 RV 53 20 15 9 3 * 1
9/17/09 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/17/09 RV 53 19 16 9 3 1
8/14/09 RV 61 16 13 7 2 *
10/26/05 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/9/05 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/9/05 RV 68 18 9 4 1 0
10/25/01 RV 63 19 10 5 2 1
8/23/01 RV 68 16 10 5 1 *
8/27/00 RV 76 14 7 2 1 *
2. Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
------Closely------ -----Not closely-----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
10/25/09 LV 89 39 50 11 9 2 *
10/7/09 LV 87 33 54 13 11 2 *
9/17/09 LV 84 34 51 15 12 4 *
8/14/09 LV 67 25 42 32 23 9 1
8/14/09 RV 48 17 32 51 30 21 *
10/26/05 LV 87 31 56 13 10 2 *
9/9/05 LV 73 20 53 27 20 7 *
9/9/05 RV 59 15 44 41 26 15 *
8/23/01 RV 60 16 44 39 26 13 1
8/27/00 RV 61 21 40 38 25 13 *
6/23/94 RV 74 27 47 27 18 9 *
2/3/94 73 27 46 27 18 9 *
9/93 RV 68 21 47 31 21 10 *
3. If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Creigh Deeds, the Democrat) and (Bob McDonnell, the Republican), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote for governor?
Net Leaned Vote: Other Wouldn't No
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/25/09 LV 44 55 * NA 1
10/7/09 LV 44 53 1 * 2
9/17/09 LV 47 51 * 0 2
8/14/09 LV 39 54 1 * 7
8/14/09 RV 40 47 1 3 9
4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Deeds: --------Change mind--------
Definitely vote NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
10/25/09 LV 78 20 6 14 2
10/7/09 LV 76 21 6 15 3
9/17/09 LV 72 26 10 16 2
8/14/09 LV 62 33 12 21 5
8/14/09 RV 61 35 15 20 4
McDonnell: --------Change mind--------
Definitely vote NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
10/25/09 LV 88 11 2 9 1
10/7/09 LV 78 21 5 15 1
9/17/09 LV 69 28 7 21 3
8/14/09 LV 59 38 18 21 3
8/14/09 RV 50 46 21 26 4
5. Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
Among Leaned Deeds/McDonnell Supporters:
---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
a. Deeds 75 22 53 24 21 3 1
b. McDonnell 91 39 52 9 8 1 *
Trend:
a. Deeds ---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
10/25/09 LV 75 22 53 24 21 3 1
10/7/09 LV 79 20 59 20 16 4 *
9/17/09 LV 82 22 60 17 14 3 1
8/14/09 LV 79 16 63 19 15 4 2
8/14/09 RV 67 12 56 31 22 8 2
b. McDonnell ---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
10/25/09 LV 91 39 52 9 8 1 *
10/7/09 LV 85 35 51 14 12 2 *
9/17/09 LV 89 36 53 10 9 1 *
8/14/09 LV 79 26 53 18 15 3 3
8/14/09 RV 68 20 48 29 20 9 3
6. Do you think (NAME) views on most issues are (too liberal for you), (too conservative for you), or just about right?
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
a. Deeds's 46 7 42 5
b. McDonnell's 7 34 54 5
Trend data:
a. Deeds's
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
10/25/09 LV 46 7 42 5
10/7/09 LV 44 7 42 8
9/17/09 LV 42 6 47 5
8/14/09 LV 39 7 37 18
8/14/09 RV 32 7 39 22
b. McDonnell's
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
10/25/09 LV 7 34 54 5
10/7/09 LV 6 37 51 6
9/17/09 LV 7 40 47 5
8/14/09 LV 6 30 46 18
8/14/09 RV 9 27 38 26
Compare to:
Jerry Kilgore's:
Too Too Just about Don't know No
liberal conservative right enough yet* opinion
10/26/05 LV 8 38 49 NA 5
9/9/05 LV 8 31 47 12 3
9/9/05 RV 8 26 43 19 4
Tim Kaine's:
Too Too Just about Don't know No
liberal conservative right enough yet* opinion
10/26/05 LV 40 6 49 NA 5
9/9/05 LV 31 7 45 13 3
9/9/05 RV 27 7 41 22 4
*"Don't know enough yet" respondents are those who said they knew "nothing at all"
or "don't know" about the candidate's qualifications to be governor. They were not
asked this question, but are shown as part of the base.
7. Regardless of how you [may vote/voted], whom do you trust to do a better job handling [ITEM] - (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?
Among likely voters: Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
a. Issues of special concern to women 42 49 2 2 5
b. The economy and jobs 37 54 2 3 3
c. Transportation issues 37 53 2 3 4
d. Taxes 33 58 2 4 4
Trend data:
a. Issues of special concern to women
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/25/09 LV 42 49 2 2 5
10/7/09 LV 47 41 2 3 8
9/17/09 LV 48 38 2 3 9
b. The economy and jobs
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/25/09 LV 37 54 2 3 3
10/7/09 LV 39 53 1 4 3
9/17/09 LV 43 48 1 4 3
8/14/09 LV 35 50 2 4 9
8/14/09 RV 38 40 2 4 15
c. Transportation issues
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/25/09 LV 37 53 2 3 4
10/7/09 LV 37 49 2 4 7
9/17/09 LV 38 46 3 3 10
8/14/09 LV 31 43 3 6 17
8/14/09 RV 35 34 3 6 22
i. Taxes
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/25/09 LV 33 58 2 4 4
10/7/09 LV 36 51 1 5 5
9/17/09 LV 39 50 2 4 5
8/14/09 LV 31 50 2 4 12
8/14/09 RV 35 42 2 5 16
8. Regardless of how you may vote, do you think (Deeds) or (McDonnell) [ITEM]?
Among likely voters: Both Neither No
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. would be a more effective leader 37 58 1 2 3
b. is more honest and trustworthy 34 48 6 8 5
c. better understands the problems of people like you 40 51 2 4 2
Trend data:
a. would be a more effective leader
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/25/09 LV 37 58 1 2 3
9/17/09 LV 45 50 2 1 2
b. is more honest and trustworthy
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/25/09 LV 34 48 6 8 5
9/17/09 LV 36 38 10 8 8
c. better understands the problems of people like you
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/25/09 LV 40 51 2 4 2
9/17/09 LV 46 45 2 4 3
9. Based on what you know or have heard, do you think (NAME) has been conducting mainly a positive campaign, or mainly a negative campaign?
Among likely voters:
Positive Negative No opinion
a. Deeds 34 61 5
b. McDonnell 57 37 6
Trend:
a. Deeds Positive Negative No opinion
10/25/09 LV 34 61 5
10/7/09 LV 37 56 7
Compare to:
Tim Kaine Positive Negative No opinion
10/26/05 LV 57 40 3
Mark Warner Positive Negative No opinion
10/25/01 LV 68 27 5
b. McDonnell Positive Negative No opinion
10/25/09 LV 57 37 6
10/7/09 LV 60 32 8
Compare to:
Jerry Kilgore Positive Negative No opinion
10/26/05 LV 29 67 4
Mark Earley Positive Negative No opinion
10/25/01 LV 39 53 8
10. (IF BOTH DEEDS AND MCDONNELL ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative campaign, (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?
Deeds McDonnell No opinion
10/25/09 LV 51 34 15
10/7/09 LV 46 30 25
NET Summary
Deeds McDonnell Neither Other No opinion
10/25/09 LV 49 22 18 4 7
10/7/09 LV 44 18 22 4 11
Compare to:
(IF BOTH KILGORE AND KAINE ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative
campaign, (Kilgore) or (Kaine)?
Kilgore Kaine No opinion
10/26/05 LV 53 30 17
NET Summary
Kilgore Kaine Neither Other No opin.
10/26/05 LV 53 19 19 1 8
11. [Will/Was] one reason for your vote for governor [be] to express (support for) President Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or [is/was] Obama not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Obama not a factor No opinion 10/25/09 LV 14 15 70 *
12. (IF OPPOSITION IN Q11) Could you briefly explain to me why Obama [is/was] a factor in your vote for governor - what is the main reason?
10/25/09 Too liberal/left 11 Not trustworthy/do not trust him 11 Budget deficit 10 Socialism/Communism 10 Dislike his policies/wrong direction 10 Health care reform 7 Government/too much government 7 He's a Democrat/I'm a Republican 5 Position on taxes 4 Want to support a Republican/balance of power 4 Deeds too close to Obama/Pelosi/national Dems 4 Iraq/war in Iraq 1 Afghanistan/war in Afghanistan * Other 13 No opinion 4
13. Regardless of your vote for governor this year, in general do you think it is better for Virginia to have a governor who is from (the same) political party as the president, from (a different) one, or do you think that doesn't make much of a difference?
Same Different No difference No opinion 10/25/09 LV 16 13 71 *
14. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/25/09 LV 58 23 35 38 17 21 4
10/7/09 LV 60 25 36 37 19 19 2
9/17/09 LV 59 27 33 38 17 22 2
8/14/09 LV 51 22 29 45 20 25 4
8/14/09 RV 55 23 32 38 18 20 7
8/14/09 All 56 21 34 36 18 18 8
9/21/08 RV 66 25 9
10/8/07 LV 66 27 7
10/8/07 All 63 25 12
10/12/06 LV 77 19 4
15. On another subject, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/25/09 LV 54 36 18 45 11 34 1
10/25/09 RV 57 37 20 40 12 28 3
10/7/09 LV 53 36 17 46 10 36 2
10/7/09 RV 58 37 21 39 11 28 3
9/17/09 LV 53 38 15 47 11 36 1
8/14/09 LV 47 32 15 51 10 41 2
8/14/09 RV 57 39 17 41 11 31 2
16. On another subject, would you favor or oppose an increase in state taxes to pay for new road and transit projects?
Favor Oppose No opinion 10/25/09 LV 42 55 3 10/7/09 LV 42 55 3 8/14/09 LV 46 51 2 8/14/09 41 56 3
17. Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? (*Asked of half sample.)
--------- Favor --------- -------- Oppose -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/25/09 LV 66 45 22 31 13 18 3
6/3/07 All 64 NA NA 30 NA NA 5
10/26/05 LV 72 NA NA 25 NA NA 2
9/9/05 LV* 75 NA NA 23 NA NA 2
9/9/05 RV* 76 NA NA 22 NA NA 2 18. Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/25/09 LV 43 29 14 53 9 44 4 19. Which comes closer to the way you feel: government reform of the nation's health care system (is necessary to control costs and expand coverage), or government action on health care (will do more harm than good)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
------- Necessary ------- -- More harm than good --
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/25/09 LV 48 35 13 49 7 42 3
9/17/09 LV 52 39 12 46 7 39 3
8/14/09 LV 45 33 13 52 8 44 2
8/14/09 50 32 18 47 13 34 2 20. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
--Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No opinion Dem. Rep. Lean
10/25/09 LV 31 30 34 4 1 12 19 8
10/25/09 RV 34 25 35 5 1 14 17 10
10/7/09 LV 31 30 36 2 1 13 20 6
9/17/09 LV 32 29 34 5 * 12 19 8
9/17/09 RV 34 27 32 5 1 12 15 11
9/17/09 33 25 33 7 2 12 14 16
8/14/09 LV 27 34 34 4 1 11 20 8
8/14/09 RV 31 29 35 4 1 13 17 9
8/14/09 31 28 37 3 1 15 16 11
10/25/08 LV 36 28 33 4 * 15 14 8
10/25/08 RV 36 28 33 4 * 15 13 9
10/25/08 35 26 31 6 1 14 12 12
9/21/08 LV 33 28 34 5 1 15 16 8
9/21/08 RV 34 25 35 6 1 15 16 10
9/21/08 33 24 34 7 2 15 15 13
10/8/07 RV 32 29 34 4 1 15 13 11
10/8/07 30 27 38 4 1 18 13 11
6/3/07 RV 33 29 29 4 4 12 11 14
6/3/07 34 27 28 4 6 12 12 16
10/12/06 LV 33 32 32 3 * 14 12 9
10/26/05 LV 33 37 26 3 1 13 10 6
9/9/05 LV 34 37 25 4 * 12 13 5
9/9/05 RV 32 34 29 4 * 13 13 7
10/25/01 LV 31 37 26 5 1 10 12 10
8/23/01 LV 35 38 24 3 * 12 11 4
8/23/01 RV 32 33 29 5 1 15 12 8
10/26/00 LV 33 32 28 6 1 11 13 10
8/27/00 LV 30 36 29 5 1 11 13 10
8/27/00 RV 29 34 32 5 1 12 14 11
10/21/97 LV 31 32 31 5 1 12 14 11
9/16/97 LV 30 31 33 4 1 13 14 11
9/16/97 RV 28 31 35 4 1 14 14 17
6/23/94 29 29 32 8 2 12 15 18
9/28/93 RV 30 30 35 4 1 13 12 10
11/2/89 LV 33 32 31 3 1 NA NA NA
21. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) No opinion
10/25/09 LV 20 39 39 1 1
10/7/09 LV 20 41 38 * *
9/17/09 LV 20 44 36 * 1
8/14/09 LV 20 37 41 1 1
8/14/09 RV 21 42 35 1 1
8/14/09 22 43 34 1 1
10/25/08 LV 19 45 32 2 2
10/25/08 RV 19 45 32 2 2
9/21/08 LV 21 46 30 2 1
9/21/08 RV 22 47 29 2 1
22. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services: more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom or never?
------- Weekly ---------
Once or twice A few times
NET >1/week Once/week per month a year Seldom Never No op.
10/25/09 LV 42 15 27 17 19 13 9 *
10/7/09 LV 43 16 28 17 21 12 7 *
9/17/09 LV 44 16 28 18 18 11 9 *
8/14/09 LV 43 15 27 20 18 10 9 *
8/14/09 RV 39 14 25 21 20 11 9 *
8/14/09 37 13 24 20 19 12 11 *
10/25/08 LV 41 14 27 16 20 15 8 *
10/25/08 RV 40 13 26 17 20 15 8 *
23. Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources?
-------Less than $50k------- --------More than $50k--------
NET <20k 20-35k 35-50k NET 50-75k 75-100k 100k+
10/25/09 LV 31 7 9 14 67 16 17 34
10/7/09 LV 29 6 8 14 70 18 17 35
9/17/09 LV 30 8 9 13 69 18 18 33
8/14/09 LV 26 6 7 13 72 22 16 33
8/14/09 RV 36 9 11 15 62 20 15 27
8/14/09 42 14 12 16 56 18 14 24
10/25/08 LV 36 9 11 16 62 19 14 28
10/25/08 RV 37 10 11 16 61 19 14 27
9/21/08 LV 31 7 8 15 68 19 18 31
9/21/08 RV 36 11 9 16 62 17 17 27
9/21/08 40 13 11 16 58 19 14 25 