Washington Post-ABC News Poll: Elections 2004
Monday, September 27, 2004 | | | | This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 23-26, 2004 among 1,204 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 969 self-identified registered voters. Margin of sampling error for overall results and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
9/26/04 RV 48 39 8 4 1
9/8/04 RV 45 40 10 4 1
8/29/04 RV 43 38 13 7 *
8/1/04 RV 41 39 13 7 *
7/25/04 34 39 15 12 *
7/11/04 36 43 13 7 1
6/20/04 33 45 15 7 *
5/23/04 33 41 17 9 *
4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0
3/7/04 33 42 18 7 *
2/11/04 30 45 15 10 *
1/18/04 22 44 22 13 *
10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0
9/13/03 16 40 27 17 * Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 54 38 6 2 *
11/5/00 53 38 6 2 *
11/4/00 52 39 7 2 *
11/3/00 51 40 6 3 *
11/2/00 48 42 7 3 *
11/1/00 48 43 7 2 *
10/31/00 46 44 7 2 *
10/30/00 47 44 7 2 *
10/29/00 47 43 7 3 *
10/28/00 47 42 7 3 *
10/27/00 48 41 7 4 *
10/26/00 47 42 8 3 *
10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0
10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0
10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0
10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0
10/21/00 46 41 9 4 *
10/20/00 46 40 11 4 *
10/19/00 44 41 10 4 *
10/18/00 42 45 10 3 *
10/17/00 40 46 10 3 *
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 33 44 15 8 *
10/9/00 30 45 16 9 *
10/1/00 27 48 17 8 *
9/6/00 26 48 17 9 *
8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1
8/10/00 29 43 18 11 *
General Population:
8/6/00 17 36 22 25 *
7/29/00 16 35 25 24 *
7/23/00 14 36 25 25 *
6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0
4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0
3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0
2/27/00 24 46 20 10 *
2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0
1/16/00 11 39 26 24 *
12/15/99 12 33 31 24 *
10/31/99 16 45 25 13 *
2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 87 8 4 1 * *
9/8/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 *
8/29/04 RV 84 10 4 2 * 0
8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 *
7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * *
10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 0
2000:
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 82 10 6 2 1 *
10/9/00 81 10 6 2 * *
10/1/00 81 10 5 3 1 *
9/6/00 78 12 5 3 1 *
8/20/00 78 13 6 3 1 0
8/10/00 79 12 6 1 1 *
General Population:
8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 *
7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 *
7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 *
6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 *
5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 1
4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 *
3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 *
2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 *
2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 *
1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 *
12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 1
10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 *
3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidate are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
9/26/04 51 45 1 * 1 0 2
9/8/04 52 43 2 * 1 0 2
8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1
7/25/04 50 46 2 * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
9/26/04 51 44 2 1 1 * 2
9/8/04 50 44 2 * 2 * 2
8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2
7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1
7/11/04 46 46 4 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1
5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1
4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
7/11/04 45 46 5 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 42 48 7 * 1 1 1
5/23/04 45 44 6 * 1 2 1
4/18/04 47 42 7 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 42 47 5 * 1 3 2 4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Registered voters:
9/26/04 All 82 16 4 12 2
Bush 83 15 5 10 2
Kerry 84 15 3 13 1
9/8/04 All 84 14 6 8 2
Bush 88 11 5 6 1
Kerry 81 16 6 10 3
8/29/04 All 81 18 7 11 1
Bush 82 16 7 10 1
Kerry 81 18 6 12 1
8/1/04 All 80 19 7 12 1
Bush 79 20 7 13 1
Kerry 83 16 5 11 1
7/25/04 All 78 20 7 13 2
Bush 80 19 7 12 1
Kerry 80 18 5 13 2
7/11/04 All 79 21 7 13 1
Bush 78 22 8 14 *
Kerry 80 19 7 13 1
6/20/04 All 73 26 12 14 *
Bush 80 20 8 12 *
Kerry 74 26 12 13 1
General Population:
6/20/04 All 71 28 13 15 1
Bush 78 21 9 13 *
Kerry 72 27 13 14 1 Compare to 2000:
Gore:
Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 7 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 9 4 5 *
11/4/00 90 10 4 6 *
11/3/00 88 11 5 6 1
11/2/00 84 16 7 9 1
11/1/00 83 16 7 9 1
10/31/00 83 17 6 11 1
10/30/00 88 12 4 8 0
10/29/00 88 12 5 7 *
10/28/00 88 11 5 6 1
10/27/00 85 14 6 8 1
10/26/00 85 14 6 8 1
10/25/00 84 15 7 8 1
10/24/00 83 15 7 8 1
10/23/00 83 16 7 9 1
10/22/00 80 18 7 11 1
10/21/00 80 18 8 10 1
10/20/00 78 21 10 11 2
10/19/00 80 17 8 9 2
10/18/00 80 17 8 9 3
10/17/00 80 17 8 9 3
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 75 23 10 13 3
10/9/00 71 25 10 15 4
10/1/00 68 30 15 15 2
9/6/00 69 29 11 18 2
8/20/00 71 27 9 18 2
8/6/00 65 32 14 18 3
General Population:
8/6/00 62 36 16 20 2
7/23/00 58 41 15 26 2 Bush:
Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 7 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 7 3 4 2
11/4/00 89 9 4 5 2
11/3/00 88 11 5 6 2
11/2/00 88 11 5 6 1
11/1/00 90 10 5 5 1
10/31/00 89 9 5 4 1
10/30/00 87 12 5 7 1
10/29/00 87 11 5 6 1
10/28/00 86 13 6 7 1
10/27/00 88 12 6 6 1
10/26/00 86 13 5 8 1
10/25/00 86 13 4 9 *
10/24/00 85 15 5 10 1
10/23/00 85 14 6 8 1
10/22/00 86 13 5 8 1
10/21/00 87 12 5 7 1
10/20/00 86 13 4 9 1
10/19/00 85 15 6 9 1
10/18/00 84 15 6 9 1
10/17/00 83 16 8 8 0
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 76 24 12 12 1
10/9/00 72 25 11 14 3
10/1/00 71 27 14 13 2
9/6/00 70 29 13 16 1
8/20/00 68 32 12 20 1
8/6/00 68 30 14 16 1
General Population
8/6/00 65 33 15 18 2
7/23/00 63 36 14 22 2 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
9/26/04 All 50 33 18 45 13 32 5
RV 52 35 17 46 13 32 5
9/8/04 All 52 35 17 43 11 32 5
RV 52 38 14 45 11 33 3
8/29/04 All 50 31 19 47 13 34 3
RV 52 33 19 47 13 35 1
8/1/04 All 47 28 18 49 13 36 5
RV 48 29 19 51 13 38 2
7/25/04 All 50 32 19 47 13 34 3
RV 51 33 18 47 13 34 2
7/11/04 48 31 17 50 11 39 2
6/20/04 All 47 30 17 51 13 39 1
RV 48 32 15 51 12 40 1
5/23/04 47 31 17 50 14 36 3
4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1
3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2
2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2
1/18/04 58 35 24 40 9 30 2
12/21/03 59 39 21 38 15 23 3
12/14/03 57 37 20 39 10 29 5
12/7/03 53 32 21 40 13 27 7
11/16/03 57 34 23 39 11 28 4
10/29/03 56 30 26 42 13 29 2
10/13/03 53 33 20 43 13 29 4
9/30/03 54 34 20 44 15 29 2
9/13/03 58 35 23 40 14 27 2
9/7/03 56 34 22 41 13 28 4
8/11/03 59 37 22 37 14 23 4
7/10/03 59 35 24 38 13 25 3
6/22/03 68 45 23 29 11 18 4
4/30/03 71 50 22 26 17 9 3
4/16/03 74 52 22 23 9 14 3
4/9/03 77 58 19 20 6 14 4
4/3/03 71 54 16 25 7 19 4
3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4
3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5
3/2/03 62 38 23 35 13 22 4
2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6
2/9/03 64 42 21 34 14 20 3
2/1/03 62 41 21 34 13 22 4
1/28/03 62 43 19 36 13 23 2
1/27/03 59 39 21 37 15 22 4
1/20/03 59 36 23 38 16 22 2
12/15/02 66 37 28 32 12 20 2
11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 12 20 1
11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 12 20 1
11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 9 23 1
10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 13 16 4
LV 68 47 21 30 14 16 3
9/26/02 67 42 25 30 12 18 3
9/8/02 71 42 28 27 12 15 3
7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3
7/15/02 72 42 31 25 12 13 2
6/17/02 74 42 32 22 9 13 4
6/9/02 77 41 36 20 9 11 3
5/19/02 76 48 28 22 8 13 3
4/21/02 78 47 31 20 9 10 2
3/28/02 79 49 30 18 8 10 3
3/10/02 82 52 30 16 9 7 2
1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3
12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2
11/27/01 89 69 21 9 4 5 1
11/6/01 89 65 24 9 5 4 2
10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1
9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4
9/13/01 86 63 23 12 5 6 2
9/9/01 55 26 29 41 20 22 3
8/12/01 61 28 33 31 14 17 8
7/30/01 59 28 30 38 17 22 3
6/3/01 55 27 28 40 18 22 6
4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5
3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 9/26/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters Approve Disapprove No op.
a. The economy 47 50 4
b. The situation in Iraq 47 50 3
c. The US campaign against terrorism 59 38 3 Trend: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion
9/26/04 RV 47 50 4
8/29/04 RV 45 52 3
7/25/04 47 50 3
6/20/04 46 53 1
5/23/04 44 54 2
4/18/04 44 54 2
3/7/04 39 59 1
2/11/04 44 54 2
1/18/04 51 47 2
12/21/03 51 44 5
11/16/03 48 49 3
10/29/03 45 53 2
10/13/03 45 52 2
9/13/03 42 56 3
9/7/03 44 51 5
8/11/03 45 51 5
7/10/03 47 49 4
4/30/03 52 45 3
2/9/03 47 49 4
2/1/03 44 52 4
1/28/03 46 49 4
1/27/03 47 47 5
1/20/03 43 53 4
1/5/03 50 43 7
12/15/02 50 46 4
11/4/02 LV 53 45 2
11/3/02 LV 52 46 2
11/2/02 LV 55 43 2
10/27/02 51 43 6
10/27/02 LV 53 44 3
9/26/02 51 47 3
9/8/02 57 40 4
7/28/02 57 39 4
7/15/02 58 38 3
4/21/02 64 33 3
1/27/02 62 34 4
12/19/01 67 27 6
11/6/01 72 23 5
9/9/01 48 48 4
7/30/01 52 45 3
6/3/01 53 41 6
4/22/01 55 38 7
3/25/01 50 42 8 b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion
9/26/04 RV 47 50 3
8/29/04 RV 47 51 2
7/25/04 45 53 2
6/20/04 44 55 2
5/23/04 40 58 2
4/18/04 45 54 1
3/7/04 46 53 1
2/11/04 47 52 1
1/18/04 55 42 2
12/21/03 60 39 2
12/14/03 58 38 4
11/16/03 48 48 4
10/29/03 47 51 2
10/13/03 51 47 2
9/29/03 50 47 3
9/13/03 52 46 2
9/7/03 49 47 4
8/24/03 56 37 7
8/11/03 56 41 3
7/10/03 58 41 2
6/22/03 67 30 2
4/30/03 75 22 2 Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein
3/27/03 69 26 5
3/23/03 71 26 3
3/20/03 65 29 5
3/17/03 64 29 7
3/9/03 55 38 8
2/23/03 55 39 6
2/9/03 61 37 2
2/5/03 61 32 7
2/1/03 61 35 3
1/28/03 58 38 4
1/27/03 57 40 3
1/20/03 50 46 4
12/15/02 58 37 5
11/4/02 LV 56 40 4
11/3/02 LV 57 40 4
11/2/02 LV 56 41 3
10/27/02 57 38 5
9/26/02 58 39 3
9/14/02 65 31 4
8/29/02 52 36 12 c. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion
9/26/04 RV 59 38 3
8/29/04 RV 60 37 3
7/25/04 57 40 4
6/20/04 50 48 2
5/23/04 58 39 4
4/18/04 63 35 2
3/7/04 63 34 3
2/11/04 64 34 2
1/18/04 66 33 2
12/21/03 70 28 2
10/29/03 63 35 2
10/13/03 66 30 4
9/13/03 70 27 3
9/7/03 67 28 5
4/30/03 79 19 2
2/9/03 74 23 4
2/1/03 75 21 3
1/27/03 72 26 2
1/20/03 71 25 4
12/15/02 79 20 1
11/4/02 LV 76 22 1
11/3/02 LV 77 22 3
11/2/02 LV 78 21 2
10/27/02 All 74 23 4
10/27/02 LV 78 20 2
9/26/02 70 28 2
9/8/02 74 24 2
7/28/02 81 17 2
7/15/02 83 15 2
5/19/02* 79 19 3
4/21/02* 81 18 2
3/10/02* 88 10 2
1/27/02 88 10 2
12/19/01* 89 9 2
10/15/01* 92 5 3
*Asked very/somewhat follow-up 7. Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME) or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 9/26/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. John Kerry 37 42 21
b. George W. Bush 52 38 10 Trend: a. John Kerry Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/26/04 RV 37 42 21
9/8/04 RV 36 42 23
8/29/04 RV 43 40 17
8/1/04 RV 51 32 16
7/25/04 RV 48 39 12
3/7/04 54 26 20 b. George W. Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/26/04 RV 52 38 10
9/8/04 RV 51 39 11
8/29/04 RV 50 40 9
8/1/04 RV 47 45 8
7/25/04 RV 54 43 3
3/7/04 47 46 7
9/6/00 RV 58 31 11
6/11/00 50 28 22
4/2/00 50 31 19
2/27/00 49 39 11
10/31/99 69 24 8
9/2/99 61 23 16
6/6/99 54 15 30
3/14/99 54 14 32
2/14/99 51 13 36
1/19/98 34 13 53 8. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion
9/26/04 RV 49 49 2
9/8/04 RV 49 49 2
8/29/04 RV 44 54 1
7/25/04 46 53 1
4/9/03 65 32 3
3/23/03* 60 38 2
3/5/03* 36 61 3
2/9/03 49 49 2
7/30/01 53 47 1
11/4/00 LV 61 36 3
11/3/00 LV 61 35 4
11/2/00 LV 62 35 4
*Gallup. 9. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (health care), or something else? Economy/ Educ- Health No
Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care Other op.
9/26/04 RV 21 19 28 6 13 10 3
9/8/04 RV 25 18 27 6 13 8 2
8/29/04 RV 19 19 31 6 12 11 2
8/1/04 RV 20 23 25 7 11 12 2
7/25/04 RV 20 21 27 7 12 12 1 10. (IF NAMED TOP ISSUE, Q9) Is there another issue nearly as important as that in your vote for president, or is that the issue that will largely decide your vote? (IF YES) What issue is it? 9/26/04 RV The U.S. campaign
against terrorism 10
The war in Iraq 16
The economy and jobs 19
Education 6
Health care 10
NONE/No other issues 25
Abortion/Pro-life/Pro-choice 1
Candidates' military record *
Budget deficit 1
Environment 1
Gun control 1
Morality/moral values 1
Religion/Faith/Christian faith 1
Same-sex marriage 1
Stem-cell research *
Taxes *
Social Security *
Other 5
No opinion 3 11. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 9/26/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. The economy 48 43 * 4 5
b. The situation in Iraq 53 40 * 3 4
c. The US campaign against
terrorism 54 37 1 3 5
d. Relations with other
countries 49 41 1 3 6
e. Creating jobs 44 46 1 5 5 Trend: a. The economy Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/26/04 RV 48 43 * 4 5
9/8/04 RV 47 43 1 4 5
8/29/04 RV 48 47 1 2 2
8/1/04 RV 41 52 * 3 4
7/25/04 RV 47 46 1 3 4
7/11/04 RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/11/04 43 51 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 45 50 1 2 1
6/20/04 45 50 1 3 1
5/23/04 43 48 * 5 3
4/18/04 47 47 1 4 1
3/7/04 41 53 * 4 2
2/11/04 41 49 1 4 5 b. The situation in Iraq Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/26/04 RV 53 40 * 3 4
9/8/04 RV 53 37 1 4 6
8/29/04 RV 52 44 * 2 2
8/1/04 RV 46 48 * 2 4
7/25/04 RV 52 40 1 3 3
7/11/04 RV 47 47 1 4 2
7/11/04 47 47 1 3 2
6/20/04 RV 49 47 * 3 1
6/20/04 50 45 * 4 1
5/23/04 48 42 * 6 3
4/18/04 52 41 * 4 2
3/7/04 47 48 1 3 2
2/11/04 48 41 1 6 5 c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/26/04 RV 54 37 1 3 5
9/8/04 RV 57 35 1 3 4
8/29/04 RV 56 38 1 2 3
8/1/04 RV 48 45 * 1 5
7/25/04 RV 55 37 2 3 3
7/11/04 RV 51 43 1 3 3
7/11/04 51 42 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 48 47 * 3 2
6/20/04 47 48 1 3 1
5/23/04 52 39 1 4 4
4/18/04 58 37 1 3 1
3/7/04 57 36 2 2 3
2/11/04 53 37 1 4 5 d. Relations with other countries Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/26/04 RV 49 41 1 3 6
9/8/04 RV 47 42 1 4 6
8/1/04 RV 42 51 1 2 5 e. Creating jobs Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/26/04 RV 44 46 1 5 5
9/8/04 RV 43 45 1 6 6
4/18/04 46 48 1 4 1
3/7/04 43 51 1 3 2
2/11/04 37 51 1 5 6 12. Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 9/26/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and
trustworthy 45 38 3 10 4
b. He understands the
problems of people like
you 43 42 1 12 2
c. He is a strong leader 58 32 2 4 4
d. He will make the
country safer and
more secure 54 37 2 4 3
e. He shares your values 48 43 1 5 3
f. He's taken a clear stand
on the issues 59 28 3 7 3
g. He has an appealing
personality 51 32 4 10 3
h. He has strong religious
faith 60 18 6 5 12 Trend where available: a. He is honest and trustworthy Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 45 38 3 10 4
9/8/04 RV 48 35 3 11 4
8/29/04 RV 47 41 2 8 3
8/1/04 RV 41 47 4 5 2
7/25/04 RV 46 40 2 10 2
6/20/04 RV 40 52 1 6 1
6/20/04 39 52 1 6 1 b. He understands the problems of people like you Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 43 42 1 12 2
9/8/04 RV 44 43 1 8 4
8/29/04 RV 42 48 1 8 2
8/1/04 RV 37 51 1 8 2
7/25/04 RV 42 46 1 9 2
6/20/04 RV 37 55 1 7 1
6/20/04 36 56 1 6 2 c. He is a strong leader Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 58 32 2 4 4
9/8/04 RV 58 31 3 4 4
8/29/04 RV 54 39 2 2 3
8/1/04 RV 50 44 2 2 3
7/25/04 RV 55 36 2 5 2
6/20/04 RV 50 45 1 3 2
6/20/04 51 43 2 3 2 d. He will make the country safer and more secure Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 54 37 2 4 3
9/8/04 RV 54 35 1 5 5
8/29/04 RV 53 40 2 3 2
8/1/04 RV 48 45 1 3 3
7/25/04 RV 54 38 1 4 2
6/20/04 RV 53 42 1 2 2
6/20/04 54 40 1 3 2 e. He shares your values Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 48 43 1 5 3
9/8/04 RV 48 40 2 6 4
8/29/04 RV 47 46 1 4 2
8/1/04 RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 5 2
6/20/04 RV 46 48 1 3 1
6/20/04 46 48 1 4 1 f. He's taken a clear stand on the issues Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 59 28 3 7 3
9/8/04 RV 56 29 3 9 3 g. He has an appealing personality Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/26/04 RV 51 32 4 10 3
9/8/04 RV 53 31 4 9 3 h. No trend. 13. And which of these is the single most important personal quality you are looking for in a presidential candidate? I'll read the list twice. Is it someone ... 9/26/04 RV
Who is honest and trustworthy 25
Who understands the problems
of people like you 12
Who is a strong leader 18
Who will make the country
safer and more secure 14
Who shares your values 13
Who has taken a clear stand
on the issues 7
Who has an appealing personality *
Who has strong religious faith 7
No opinion 4 14. Who do you think is better qualified to be commander in chief of the U.S. military, (Kerry) or (Bush)? Bush Kerry Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No op.
9/26/04 RV 52 41 1 3 3
9/8/04 RV 53 40 1 3 3
8/29/04 RV 53 43 * 2 1
8/1/04 RV 44 52 1 1 2 15. Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Bush/Kerry) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? 9/26/04 - Summary Table - Among Registered Voters, Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
a. Bush 91 61 31 8 6 2 *
b. Kerry 87 39 47 12 9 3 1 Trend: ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
Bush:
9/26/04 RV 91 61 31 8 6 2 *
9/8/04 RV 95 63 32 5 4 * *
8/29/04 RV 94 56 38 6 5 1 *
8/1/04 RV 90 53 37 10 8 2 *
7/25/04 RV 90 49 41 10 8 1 *
6/20/04 RV 90 50 40 9 7 2 *
6/20/04 All 90 48 42 10 8 2 *
Kerry:
9/26/04 RV 87 39 47 12 9 3 1
9/8/04 RV 85 39 46 14 10 4 1
8/29/04 RV 89 40 49 11 9 2 *
8/1/04 RV 92 56 36 7 6 1 1
7/25/04 RV 90 41 49 10 9 1 0
6/20/04 RV 85 34 51 15 12 3 0
6/20/04 All 83 33 50 17 13 4 0 16. In his policy decisions, do you think (NAME) is too (willing to take risks), too (cautious) or what? 9/26/04 - Registered Voters Too willing Too Neither About right No
to take risks cautious (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. Bush 55 10 14 14 8
b. Kerry 17 35 19 6 22 17. In your opinion, is the outcome of this presidential election especially important, or is it no more important than any other presidential election? (IF ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT) Would you say it's one of the single most important elections of your lifetime, or not that important? -------Especially important------
One of the Not that No more No
NET single most important important opinion
9/26/04 RV 82 67 15 17 1
7/25/04 RV 78 66 12 21 1
11/5/00* RV 67 NA NA 31 2
11/2/96* RV 60 NA NA 38 1
*Pew Research Center 18. Do you think (Bush/Kerry) does or does not have a clear plan for (ITEM)? 9/26/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters -------Bush------ ------Kerry------
Does Does No Does Does No
not op. not op.
a. handling the situation in Iraq 53 44 3 38 56 6
b. handling the economy 54 43 3 51 41 7
c. handling terrorism 62 36 3 36 55 9 Trend: a. handling the situation in Iraq -------Bush------ ------Kerry------
Does Does No Does Does No
not op. not op.
9/26/04 RV 53 44 3 38 56 6
6/20/04 48 50 1 42 52 6 b. handling the economy -------Bush------ ------Kerry------
Does Does No Does Does No
not op. not op.
9/26/04 RV 54 43 3 51 41 7
6/20/04 47 51 2 55 40 5 c. handling terrorism -------Bush------ ------Kerry------
Does Does No Does Does No
not op. not op.
9/26/04 RV 62 36 3 36 55 9
6/20/04 55 43 1 42 53 5 19. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? ----Worth fighting---- ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
9/26/04 RV 46 35 12 51 8 42 3
9/8/04 RV 51 38 13 45 10 34 4
8/29/04 RV 48 34 14 50 11 39 2
7/25/04 49 36 13 48 11 37 3
6/20/04 47 32 14 52 13 39 2
5/23/04 48 35 13 50 13 37 1
5/6/04 49 NA NA 47 NA NA 5
4/18/04 51 47 2
3/7/04 52 44 3
2/11/04 48 50 2
1/18/04 56 41 3
12/21/03 59 39 2
12/14/03 53 42 5
11/16/03 52 44 4
10/29/03 54 44 2
10/13/03 54 44 2
9/13/03 61 37 2
9/7/03 54 42 4
8/24/03 57 37 5
8/11/03 61 35 4
7/10/03 57 40 3
6/22/03 64 33 3
4/30/03 70 " " 27 " " 4
Gulf War:
2/2/92* 66 NA NA 32 NA NA 2
7/28/91 67 30 3
6/2/91 70 26 3
3/4/91 86 " " 13 " " 1
*2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 20. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States? IF YES: Has it contributed to the long-term security of the United States a great deal, or somewhat? ----------Contributed---------- Has No
NET Great deal Somewhat not opin.
9/26/04 RV 54 36 18 42 4
9/8/04 RV 57 36 22 40 3
8/29/04 RV 54 33 20 42 4
7/25/04 51 32 19 45 3
6/20/04 51 28 23 46 2
5/23/04 54 30 24 43 3
4/18/04 57 33 24 40 3
3/7/04 57 29 29 40 3
2/11/04 58 32 26 38 4
1/18/04 59 34 25 38 3
12/21/03 62 34 29 34 4
7/10/03* 62 33 29 35 3
*"did or did not" 21. Do you think the United States (has gotten bogged down in Iraq), or do you think the United States (is making good progress in Iraq)? Has gotten bogged down Is making good progress No op.
9/26/04 RV 60 36 4
9/8/04 RV 54 40 6
5/23/04 65 33 2
5/6/04 60 35 5
4/18/04 59 41 0 22. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/Poor----- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
9/26/04 RV 46 3 43 53 38 15 1
8/29/04 RV 45 3 41 55 37 18 *
7/25/04 46 4 42 53 39 14 *
6/20/04 45 4 41 55 38 17 *
4/18/04 43 4 39 57 39 18 *
3/7/04 39 2 37 60 38 22 1
1/18/04 42 3 39 58 42 16 0
12/21/03 42 4 39 57 41 16 1
10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 *
9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 *
8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 *
4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 *
2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 *
1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1
12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1
11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1
11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1
11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 *
9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 *
7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1
2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 *
1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 *
9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2
9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 *
7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 *
4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 *
1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1
10/27/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *
10/26/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *
6/11/00 74 17 57 26 19 6 *
2/27/00 80 25 55 20 14 5 *
10/31/99 74 18 56 26 18 7 1
9/2/99 76 19 57 23 16 6 1
3/14/99 80 22 58 19 15 4 1
11/1/98 73 12 61 26 21 5 1
11/1/98 LV 78 13 65 22 19 3 *
10/13/97 61 12 49 39 27 11 *
23. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No
off well off same opinion
9/26/04 RV 17 45 37 2
9/8/04 RV 19 42 37 3
8/29/04 RV 14 46 39 1
8/1/04 RV 18 47 34 1
7/25/04 15 41 43 1
6/20/04 17 45 37 1
4/18/04 18 43 37 2
3/7/04 17 43 38 1
2/11/04 14 47 38 1
1/18/04 13 42 43 2
12/21/03 17 40 41 2
10/29/03 9 49 41 1
9/13/03 9 52 38 1
4/30/03 10 48 42 1 George H. W. Bush
8/9/92 6 61 31 1
10/21/91 7 48 41 4
3/4/91 7 35 56 2
1/16/89 33 26 38 3 24. Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country today is safer from terrorism or less safe from terrorism? IF SAFER: Would you say the country is much safer or somewhat safer? ---------Safer--------- Less No diff. No
NET Much Somewhat safe (vol.) opin.
9/26/04 RV 59 24 35 34 5 2
9/8/04 RV 64 26 38 28 5 3
8/29/04 RV 60 24 36 31 7 2
1/18/04 67 28 39 24 8 1
9/7/03 67 24 42 27 4 2 25. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the (NAME) campaign, either by phone or in-person, asking you for your support, or not? --------Bush-------- --------Kerry--------
Yes No No op. Yes No No op.
9/26/04 NAT RV 15 84 * 14 85 1
9/19/04 WI RV 25 74 1 19 80 1
9/12/04 PA RV 21 78 1 14 85 1
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