As of

Level 1
Everything’s groovy

Level 2
Hmm. Something’s not quite right.

Level 3
Getting kind of scary

Level 4
Getting really scary!

Level 5



There is no single indicator that shows how long it will take until the United States begins to default on its debts. But the indicators below reflect how nervous financial markets are. If stocks fall, volatility spikes and economic confidence declines, this suggests markets and consumers are bracing for a potential default. If the United States must pay more interest to borrow money through Treasury bills, that suggests investors are growing less confident that the government can fulfill its obligations. Credit default swaps essentially serve as insurance against a U.S. default, so if they become more expensive, it means the probability of default is higher.

Indicator Change from
What it means

Note: Data reflects market value at 5 p.m.