4% of House Republicans:



voted with leadership
on none or just one vote

Representatives in this group — like Michigan’s Justin Amash and Kansas's Tim Huelskamp — aren’t voting for anything the leadership needs them on. Like, nothing.

15% of House Republicans:

Maybe, not likely


voted against leadership
on at least half of the votes

This coalition is likely to vote “no” on immigration reform and will definitely vote “no” on the debt ceiling. But they aren’t in open rebellion against the House leadership; just four members of this group — Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador — voted against Boehner for Speaker.

38% of House Republicans:

Vote no, hope yes


voted against leadership
on at least two votes

This group includes three committee chairs — Mike Conaway (Ethics), Jeff Miller (Veterans Affairs) and Jeb Hensarling (Financial Services). This is a group who, by and large, wants to find a way to vote “yes” — to support leadership — but sometimes winds up not doing it.

23% of House Republicans:

Maybe yes


voted against leadership
on one vote

These representatives are almost always going to be behind the leadership unless there is a specific issue in their district (or their personal belief system) that keeps them from saying “yes”.

20% of House Republicans:



voted with leadership
on every vote

This is the Boehner base, such as it is. This list include many of the members of the Boehner inner circle including the likes of Minnesota Rep. John Kline, Ohio’s Pat Tiberi and Steve Stivers and Idaho’s Mike Simpson. These Members are with Boehner — almost no matter what. If they start to turn, it’s over for him.

SOURCE: Staff reports.